NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 14
Pick 1: Seattle -3 
Pick 2: New Orleans -8
Pick 3: Denver -6
Another devastating week! With all the injuries in place, it was hard picking games where the data was reliable. After doing a deep dive on the machine learning models predicting the spread that was recently re-written, I found a bug that was affecting this year but not the last. Mainly I was using data in the model from early last year that I didn't intend to. Although this mistake of mine has cost me money and reputation, I'm glad I found it now and be ready for the coming weeks and the playoffs.
In retrospect, Seattle, Denver, Patriots, and Arizona should've been easy picks. 14 points for Green Bay seemed like way too much even for the models. The other 3 picks follow the trend of good teams against really bad ones. This week we have the following trends happening:
1) Seattle is on fire and will continue to be dangerous at home. The seem to be eyeing the playoffs very closely. The Vikings are on the verge of collapse. Exploit!
2) New Orleans coming off a loss against a good defense to face one of the worst defenses in the league. Should be high scoring and one-stop/turnover will help NO win by 2 TDs.
3) Denver's D will not allow points to the 49ers. They win by a TD or more...
I know they are all favorites, but that's the way it came out. I also liked the Rams but bc Chicago was without Trubisky the last two games, the data might not be completely reliable there. Should be a good game and this way I get to cheer for my Bears. Dallas was also a close play this week, should be a good bet if you decide on it.
Pick 2: New Orleans -8
Pick 3: Denver -6
Another devastating week! With all the injuries in place, it was hard picking games where the data was reliable. After doing a deep dive on the machine learning models predicting the spread that was recently re-written, I found a bug that was affecting this year but not the last. Mainly I was using data in the model from early last year that I didn't intend to. Although this mistake of mine has cost me money and reputation, I'm glad I found it now and be ready for the coming weeks and the playoffs.
In retrospect, Seattle, Denver, Patriots, and Arizona should've been easy picks. 14 points for Green Bay seemed like way too much even for the models. The other 3 picks follow the trend of good teams against really bad ones. This week we have the following trends happening:
1) Seattle is on fire and will continue to be dangerous at home. The seem to be eyeing the playoffs very closely. The Vikings are on the verge of collapse. Exploit!
2) New Orleans coming off a loss against a good defense to face one of the worst defenses in the league. Should be high scoring and one-stop/turnover will help NO win by 2 TDs.
3) Denver's D will not allow points to the 49ers. They win by a TD or more...
I know they are all favorites, but that's the way it came out. I also liked the Rams but bc Chicago was without Trubisky the last two games, the data might not be completely reliable there. Should be a good game and this way I get to cheer for my Bears. Dallas was also a close play this week, should be a good bet if you decide on it.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE | -3 | -7.30 | -4.29 | 62.00 |
| NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY | 8.0 | 13.50 | 5.50 | 58.00 |
| DENVER @ SAN FRANCISCO | 6.0 | 7.80 | 1.79 | 57.18 |
| LA RAMS @ CHICAGO | 3.0 | 4.30 | 1.29 | 56.14 |
| PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS | -4.0 | -6.50 | -2.50 | 55.17 |
| DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 2.5 | -3.50 | -6.00 | 54.84 |
| CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND | 1.5 | 3.50 | 2.01 | 53.33 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | -4.5 | -12.00 | -7.50 | 52.17 |
| NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI | 8.0 | 14.90 | 6.93 | 51.72 |
| BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY | -7.0 | -9.60 | -2.58 | 50.00 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE | -4.5 | -3.40 | 1.11 | 50.00 |
| NY JETS @ BUFFALO | -3.5 | -1.30 | 2.18 | 48.29 |
| ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY | -6.0 | -6.70 | -0.71 | 46.00 |
| PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND | 10.5 | 11.60 | 1.08 | 45.00 |
| CINCINNATI @ LA CHARGERS | -14.0 | -13.50 | 0.55 | NA |
| NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON | 4.0 | NA | -6.50 | NA |
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