NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: Arizona -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Seattle -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week we almost swept, so close! I'm not going to complain about a 3-1 week, but do hope for a sweep soon since I almost tasted it. I'm even more confident of the models and the process this year. Here's what we got going for NFL spread picks this week:

1) Fade Oakland once again.

2) Why isn't KC a pick? Wrong home field advantage. Now in LA, still ok.

3) I know it lost, but we gotta keep fading the Giants. Tampa can score more than SF.

4) Seattle is under-rated again. Their D will keep them and win this game.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA -4.0 -15.00 -11.00 61.89
KANSAS CITY @ LA RAMS -3.5 3.70 7.17 59.64
TAMPA BAY @ NY GIANTS -1.0 3.20 4.20 58.60
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -2.5 -10.00 -7.50 58.54
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.0 4.00 7.00 55.92
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 4.00 6.50 55.56
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -7.0 -11.30 -4.33 54.90
HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON 3.0 -2.70 -5.67 54.84
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -6.10 2.85 52.81
DALLAS @ ATLANTA -3.5 -4.00 -0.50 50.00
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.00 5.10 50.00
CAROLINA @ DETROIT 4.0 0.70 -3.33 50.82
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.00 -10.70 -6.67 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

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