NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: Arizona -4 
Pick 2: Kansas City +3.5 
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +1 
Pick 4: Seattle -2.5 

Last week we almost swept, so close! I'm not going to complain about a 3-1 week, but do hope for a sweep soon since I almost tasted it. I'm even more confident of the models and the process this year. Here's what we got going for NFL spread picks this week:

1) Fade Oakland once again.

2) Why isn't KC a pick? Wrong home field advantage. Now in LA, still ok.

3) I know it lost, but we gotta keep fading the Giants. Tampa can score more than SF.

4) Seattle is under-rated again. Their D will keep them and win this game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA	-4.0	-15.00	-11.00	61.89
KANSAS CITY @ LA RAMS	-3.5	3.70	7.17	59.64
TAMPA BAY @ NY GIANTS	-1.0	3.20	4.20	58.60
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE	-2.5	-10.00	-7.50	58.54
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	-3.0	4.00	7.00	55.92
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2.5	4.00	6.50	55.56
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS	-7.0	-11.30	-4.33	54.90
HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON	3.0	-2.70	-5.67	54.84
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS	-9.0	-6.10	2.85	52.81
DALLAS @ ATLANTA	-3.5	-4.00	-0.50	50.00
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	6.00	5.10	50.00
CAROLINA @ DETROIT	4.0	0.70	-3.33	50.82
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-4.00	-10.70	-6.67	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.