NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10
Pick 1: San Francisco -3 
Pick 2: Seattle +10
Pick 3: New Orleans -5.5
Pick 4: LA Chargers -10
Another 50% week thanks to the top two picks. I'm tempted this week to put a parlay on SF and Seattle! We need to start banking here and hopefully this week we will. Here's the deal:
1) We probably should keep fading Oakland, but the model didn't find it highly secure to bet against a 10 point home dog. Instead the other team I love fading, the NY Giants, are only a 3 point dog on the road so I'm glad that's the first pick.
2) Seattle isn't that bad unless there's an injury I'm missing. LA Rams as good as they are have been 4-4 ATS. Should be a closer game according to the models.
3) Update: sorry, I can't bet Cleveland. I love Baker Mayfield as a 5 point home dog against a weak defense. Sure Atlanta will score a lot of points, but so will Cleveland. The Browns are also 5-4 ATS which makes me more comfortable making this bet.
4) I'm not betting against the Saints again like we did last week. That was dumb. At less than a TD, I'm taking this NFL champion to the bank.
5) Keep fading Oakland.
Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 10, 2018:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Seattle +10
Pick 3: New Orleans -5.5
Pick 4: LA Chargers -10
Another 50% week thanks to the top two picks. I'm tempted this week to put a parlay on SF and Seattle! We need to start banking here and hopefully this week we will. Here's the deal:
1) We probably should keep fading Oakland, but the model didn't find it highly secure to bet against a 10 point home dog. Instead the other team I love fading, the NY Giants, are only a 3 point dog on the road so I'm glad that's the first pick.
2) Seattle isn't that bad unless there's an injury I'm missing. LA Rams as good as they are have been 4-4 ATS. Should be a closer game according to the models.
3) Update: sorry, I can't bet Cleveland. I love Baker Mayfield as a 5 point home dog against a weak defense. Sure Atlanta will score a lot of points, but so will Cleveland. The Browns are also 5-4 ATS which makes me more comfortable making this bet.
4) I'm not betting against the Saints again like we did last week. That was dumb. At less than a TD, I'm taking this NFL champion to the bank.
5) Keep fading Oakland.
Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 10, 2018:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -3.0 | -7.00 | -4.03 | 63.41 |
| SEATTLE @ LA RAMS | -10.00 | -3.50 | 6.50 | 60.14 |
| NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI | 5.50 | -2.50 | -7.99 | 58.38 |
| LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND | 10.0 | 13.20 | 3.20 | 54.67 |
| ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND | 5.00 | -2.40 | -7.40 | 59.62 |
| CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH | -4.00 | -2.00 | 1.99 | 53.33 |
| NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE | 6.5 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 52.62 |
| DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA | -7.00 | -3.00 | 3.99 | 52.62 |
| ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY | -16.50 | -12.50 | 3.96 | 52.62 |
| DETROIT @ CHICAGO | -6.50 | -5.10 | 1.37 | 50.17 |
| WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY | -3.00 | -5.90 | -2.86 | 49.67 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS | -3.00 | 3.60 | 6.60 | 48.10 |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | -6.50 | -8.30 | -1.84 | NA |
| MIAMI @ GREEN BAY | -9.50 | -8.90 | 0.62 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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