Ugh, what an ugly and sloppy week. I saw Adam's Smith video injury like 12 times and I still bet on Washington? C'mon man! Cincinnati wasn't as good as the stats showed and now without Dalton, they're going to be NA for the rest of the season. Still, the Broncos defense is shifting the models their way. The Patriots were the only to cover and barely got caught with a trash TD. All road teams this week, home field advantage overestimated in the following 3 games:
1) New Orleans is the team with the best ATS and they are dominating. This should continue in Dallas. Get it at 7 if you can!
2) Update: Trubisky isn't playing. The Bears defense performance is a reminder of the Urlacher days. They cover easily against a weak Eli Manning.
3) Convinced to stay away, but earlier I said: Denver better than Cincinnati especially if Dalton and AJ Green aren't playing. Strong D bet.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS | 7.0 | 13.90 | 6.90 | 61.29 |
| CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS | 4.5 | 9.60 | 5.08 | NA |
| ARIZONA @ GREEN BAY | -14.5 | -6.50 | 8.00 | 56.14 |
| NY JETS @ TENNESSEE | -9.0 | -12.90 | -3.90 | 55.56 |
| KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND | 15.0 | 6.40 | -8.60 | 55.00 |
| CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON | -6.0 | -4.10 | 1.89 | 53.15 |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE | -10.0 | -4.20 | 5.79 | 52.70 |
| MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND | -6.0 | -3.10 | 2.89 | 52.17 |
| LA RAMS @ DETROIT | 10.0 | 9.60 | -0.43 | 50.00 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 4.0 | 7.40 | 3.43 | 48.15 |
| BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA | 1.0 | 1.80 | 0.78 | NA |
| WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA | -6.5 | -2.30 | 4.21 | NA |
| CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY | 3.5 | 5.50 | 2.03 | NA |
| BUFFALO @ MIAMI | -5.0 | -1.20 | 3.80 | NA |
| LA CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH | -3.5 | 13.90 | 17.38 | NA Gordon |
| DENVER @ CINCINNATI | 4.5 | 6.50 | 2.00 | NA |
