NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: Arizona -4
Pick 2: Kansas City +3.5
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +1
Pick 4: Seattle -2.5

Last week we almost swept, so close! I'm not going to complain about a 3-1 week, but do hope for a sweep soon since I almost tasted it. I'm even more confident of the models and the process this year. Here's what we got going for NFL spread picks this week:

1) Fade Oakland once again.

2) Why isn't KC a pick? Wrong home field advantage. Now in LA, still ok.

3) I know it lost, but we gotta keep fading the Giants. Tampa can score more than SF.

4) Seattle is under-rated again. Their D will keep them and win this game.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA -4.0 -15.00 -11.00 61.89
KANSAS CITY @ LA RAMS -3.5 3.70 7.17 59.64
TAMPA BAY @ NY GIANTS -1.0 3.20 4.20 58.60
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -2.5 -10.00 -7.50 58.54
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.0 4.00 7.00 55.92
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 4.00 6.50 55.56
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -7.0 -11.30 -4.33 54.90
HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON 3.0 -2.70 -5.67 54.84
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -6.10 2.85 52.81
DALLAS @ ATLANTA -3.5 -4.00 -0.50 50.00
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.00 5.10 50.00
CAROLINA @ DETROIT 4.0 0.70 -3.33 50.82
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.00 -10.70 -6.67 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +10 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: LA Chargers -10 correct NFL point spread pick

Another 50% week thanks to the top two picks. I'm tempted this week to put a parlay on SF and Seattle! We need to start banking here and hopefully this week we will. Here's the deal:

1) We probably should keep fading Oakland, but the model didn't find it highly secure to bet against a 10 point home dog. Instead the other team I love fading, the NY Giants, are only a 3 point dog on the road so I'm glad that's the first pick.
2) Seattle isn't that bad unless there's an injury I'm missing. LA Rams as good as they are have been 4-4 ATS. Should be a closer game according to the models.
3) Update: sorry, I can't bet Cleveland. I love Baker Mayfield as a 5 point home dog against a weak defense. Sure Atlanta will score a lot of points, but so will Cleveland. The Browns are also 5-4 ATS which makes me more comfortable making this bet.
4) I'm not betting against the Saints again like we did last week. That was dumb. At less than a TD, I'm taking this NFL champion to the bank.
5) Keep fading Oakland.

Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 10, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.0 -7.00 -4.03 63.41
SEATTLE @ LA RAMS -10.00 -3.50 6.50 60.14
NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI 5.50 -2.50 -7.99 58.38
LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND 10.0 13.20 3.20 54.67
ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND 5.00 -2.40 -7.40 59.62
CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH -4.00 -2.00 1.99 53.33
NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE 6.5 3.50 2.50 52.62
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -7.00 -3.00 3.99 52.62
ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY -16.50 -12.50 3.96 52.62
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -6.50 -5.10 1.37 50.17
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY -3.00 -5.90 -2.86 49.67
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.00 3.60 6.60 48.10
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -6.50 -8.30 -1.84 NA
MIAMI @ GREEN BAY -9.50 -8.90 0.62 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.