NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Ugh, what an ugly and sloppy week. I saw Adam's Smith video injury like 12 times and I still bet on Washington? C'mon man! Cincinnati wasn't as good as the stats showed and now without Dalton, they're going to be NA for the rest of the season. Still, the Broncos defense is shifting the models their way. The Patriots were the only to cover and barely got caught with a trash TD. All road teams this week, home field advantage overestimated in the following 3 games:

1) New Orleans is the team with the best ATS and they are dominating. This should continue in Dallas. Get it at 7 if you can!
2) Update: Trubisky isn't playing. The Bears defense performance is a reminder of the Urlacher days. They cover easily against a weak Eli Manning.
3) Convinced to stay away, but earlier I said: Denver better than Cincinnati especially if Dalton and AJ Green aren't playing. Strong D bet.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS 7.0 13.90 6.90 61.29
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS 4.5 9.60 5.08 NA
ARIZONA @ GREEN BAY -14.5 -6.50 8.00 56.14
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE -9.0 -12.90 -3.90 55.56
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 15.0 6.40 -8.60 55.00
CLEVELAND @ HOUSTON -6.0 -4.10 1.89 53.15
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE -10.0 -4.20 5.79 52.70
MINNESOTA @ NEW ENGLAND -6.0 -3.10 2.89 52.17
LA RAMS @ DETROIT 10.0 9.60 -0.43 50.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE 4.0 7.40 3.43 48.15
BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA 1.0 1.80 0.78 NA
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -6.5 -2.30 4.21 NA
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 5.50 2.03 NA
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -5.0 -1.20 3.80 NA
LA CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 13.90 17.38 NA Gordon
DENVER @ CINCINNATI 4.5 6.50 2.00 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: New England -9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Pittsburgh -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Cincinnati -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Washington +7.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

We got lucky last week. Two bad picks and two that cleared by half a point. Looking back, fading Oakland against a weak team wasn't a good idea and also stay away from Barkley and the Giants. This week the algorithm picked strong teams but shied away from 13 pt favorite New Orleans.

1) If Flacco plays, fade Oakland once again.
2) Patriots with a struggling NY Jets. They will eat them alive. A big offense against a weak D.
3) Pittsburgh on a roll.
4) Cinci with AJ Green can score big and Cleveland won't be able to keep up.
5) High confidence situation betting the dog of a 7.5 point favorite on prime time. McCoy our hometown fav, go Horns!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS 9.5 16.00 6.50 61.72
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER 3.0 6.30 3.27 58.82
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI -3.0 -9.00 -6.00 58.54
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -7.5 -2.00 5.50 NA
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -8.80 -5.25 56.37
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY -3.5 3.00 6.50 55.56
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -13.0 -10.00 3.00 53.15
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 -11.30 -1.82 52.97
CHICAGO @ DETROIT 4.5 1.00 -3.51 52.82
ARIZONA @ LA CHARGERS -12.0 -5.00 7.00 52.00
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA -3.5 -2.00 1.50 50.29
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -6.5 -10.20 -3.70 49.79
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -6.0 -13.00 -7.00 42.37
JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO 3.00 6.00 3.00 NA
OAKLAND @ BALTIMORE -10.50 -20.00 -9.50 NA

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 11

Pick 1: Arizona -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Seattle -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week we almost swept, so close! I'm not going to complain about a 3-1 week, but do hope for a sweep soon since I almost tasted it. I'm even more confident of the models and the process this year. Here's what we got going for NFL spread picks this week:

1) Fade Oakland once again.

2) Why isn't KC a pick? Wrong home field advantage. Now in LA, still ok.

3) I know it lost, but we gotta keep fading the Giants. Tampa can score more than SF.

4) Seattle is under-rated again. Their D will keep them and win this game.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA -4.0 -15.00 -11.00 61.89
KANSAS CITY @ LA RAMS -3.5 3.70 7.17 59.64
TAMPA BAY @ NY GIANTS -1.0 3.20 4.20 58.60
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -2.5 -10.00 -7.50 58.54
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO -3.0 4.00 7.00 55.92
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 4.00 6.50 55.56
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS -7.0 -11.30 -4.33 54.90
HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON 3.0 -2.70 -5.67 54.84
PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.0 -6.10 2.85 52.81
DALLAS @ ATLANTA -3.5 -4.00 -0.50 50.00
PITTSBURGH @ JACKSONVILLE 5.5 6.00 5.10 50.00
CAROLINA @ DETROIT 4.0 0.70 -3.33 50.82
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -4.00 -10.70 -6.67 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 10

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Seattle +10 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New Orleans -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: LA Chargers -10 correct NFL point spread pick

Another 50% week thanks to the top two picks. I'm tempted this week to put a parlay on SF and Seattle! We need to start banking here and hopefully this week we will. Here's the deal:

1) We probably should keep fading Oakland, but the model didn't find it highly secure to bet against a 10 point home dog. Instead the other team I love fading, the NY Giants, are only a 3 point dog on the road so I'm glad that's the first pick.
2) Seattle isn't that bad unless there's an injury I'm missing. LA Rams as good as they are have been 4-4 ATS. Should be a closer game according to the models.
3) Update: sorry, I can't bet Cleveland. I love Baker Mayfield as a 5 point home dog against a weak defense. Sure Atlanta will score a lot of points, but so will Cleveland. The Browns are also 5-4 ATS which makes me more comfortable making this bet.
4) I'm not betting against the Saints again like we did last week. That was dumb. At less than a TD, I'm taking this NFL champion to the bank.
5) Keep fading Oakland.

Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 10, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.0 -7.00 -4.03 63.41
SEATTLE @ LA RAMS -10.00 -3.50 6.50 60.14
NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI 5.50 -2.50 -7.99 58.38
LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND 10.0 13.20 3.20 54.67
ATLANTA @ CLEVELAND 5.00 -2.40 -7.40 59.62
CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH -4.00 -2.00 1.99 53.33
NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE 6.5 3.50 2.50 52.62
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -7.00 -3.00 3.99 52.62
ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY -16.50 -12.50 3.96 52.62
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -6.50 -5.10 1.37 50.17
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY -3.00 -5.90 -2.86 49.67
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -3.00 3.60 6.60 48.10
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -6.50 -8.30 -1.84 NA
MIAMI @ GREEN BAY -9.50 -8.90 0.62 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.