2018 NFL Point Spread Picks

Hello my dear fans,

What a wild ride last year was! NFLpickles had a great regular season posting a solid 62% ATS. I had some solid picks during the post-season including our 7th year in a row predicting correctly the Super Bowl against the spread. This year I'm focusing less on improving the algorithm because as you remember we did an overhaul last year that included moving all the code from SAS to Python. The focus will be on a better/winning betting strategy. I'm not sure what the answer is yet but will review the data and lay it out. It could be that we distribute pool evenly across weeks (regular and playoffs), or starting with higher constant % of the bank. I'm not sure yet, but once I finish the analysis I'll be sure to post it and follow it. If you have any solid scientific ideas, let me know.

This year, I will start publishing NFL machine learning spread picks in week 5. Usually, I post "unofficial picks" the first 4 weeks to give time for the data to sink in and then start, but that will just entice me to invest on games that I shouldn't be betting on in the first place. As always, picks will be free during the regular season and if I deliver above 55% then the playoff picks will be (like last year) available only to premium subscribers.

Ok, that's all for now and I'll see you in week 5.