2017 NFL Super Bowl Point Spread Pick

Super Bowl Pick: Philadelphia +5 correct NFL point spread pick

It's sad, depressing and disappointing that last week's game didn't go our way. I was feeling so confident up til now that I almost bet the farm on those games.  Sticking to the system (percent of bankroll) "paid off".

I really wanted to back the Patriots and fade Foles. Last year, the Patriots helped my wife and I win a free vacation (to Vegas) after that huge comeback to cover -3. So I ran the machine learning models and all were pointing at the Eagles. Ran the models with only Nick Foles games and without, but all situations point at Eagles +5. Historically, this blog has done very well in the Super Bowl going at 9-1. You can see all my Super Bowl picks.

Then I looked Super Bowl point spreads historically. In the last 20 years (only 20 games, small sample I know), the underdog has covered 13 times. Of the 7 Super Bowl games the Brady Patriots have been, they have covered 3 times. The last 2 which were miraculous last minute wins and the first one in which they were 12 point underdogs. I'm not a big fan of trends, but it seems like every trend that I look for points at the Eagles.

For the last week, we'll go 25% which mainly means we're betting here to go break even or make some decent money. At +60% ATS for the year this doesn't seem right. It might make sense to re-evaluate for next year how to better assign bankroll to each game throughout the season. Have a great Super Bowl!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA - NEW ENGLAND -5 -2.80 2.25 59.56

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.