NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Tennessee +9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The year of the favorite continues. We only have one underdog pick. These are too many points for KC to cover on a playoff game. I hate backing Tennesse and Mariotta who's got more INT than TD, but that's what the numbers are saying. Jacksonville has definitely disappointed recently and Bortles is looking like Bortles again, but the point of stats is to look at the whole picture and that's telling us they have an awesome defense. McCoy potentially bring out is something I would also like but he's a game time decision so when it's confirmed that he will play, we'll place the bet there and the spread should go down to 7 or so. The Rams will run all over the weak Atlanta defense. Finally, the team I feel is going to the Super Bowl gets the numbers. The Saints triple offensive threat is real and the terrible Carolina offense will not be able to keep up.

With a current backroll of about $15K, we increase betting pool to 30% throughout the playoffs. That means that we'll bet $1,150 for each game this week. Keep the wins coming!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -9.00 -2.03 60.24
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE -9.0 -16.00 -7.00 59.85
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY -9.0 3.50 6.48 57.45
ATLANTA @ LA RAMS -6.5 -10.00 -3.50 56.22

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.