NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional
Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5 
Pick 2: New England -13.5
Bad week last week. Bailed out at the last minute on the Jacksonville game since McCoy was ready to play yet the line didn't go down to an acceptable level of 7. The real disappointment for me was New Orleans not covering, I feel like they should've but their running game wasn't there.
This week we got some great games coming. We're focusing on two games and going for a perfect record to make up and surpass last week's loss. Although last week all road teams covered, this week we reverse the trend and expect a few key home teams to show up. Unfortunately, with Nick Foles our models won't be able to accurately predict this game. When I did analyze that game for the few only games with Nick Foles, then Atlanta would cover but I'm staying out of this one. First of, the Vikings solid defense will watch tape and stop the Saints running game again. The question becomes, can Drew Brees have another game like he had? Well maybe but the edge is on the Vikings and I would wait because this might go to 3 points (or buy the half point). Next, can you really bet against the Patriots vs a team that shouldn't even be in the playoffs? I'm glad the numbers are also there to back this bet. Finally, I'm not backing Bortles again. The confidence isn't there (visiting team with a slight edge on a 7+ spread) to bet on this game anyways
With a current backroll of about $13.5K, we keep the betting pool at 30%. That means that we'll bet $2,100 for each game this week. Lets go!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: New England -13.5
Bad week last week. Bailed out at the last minute on the Jacksonville game since McCoy was ready to play yet the line didn't go down to an acceptable level of 7. The real disappointment for me was New Orleans not covering, I feel like they should've but their running game wasn't there.
This week we got some great games coming. We're focusing on two games and going for a perfect record to make up and surpass last week's loss. Although last week all road teams covered, this week we reverse the trend and expect a few key home teams to show up. Unfortunately, with Nick Foles our models won't be able to accurately predict this game. When I did analyze that game for the few only games with Nick Foles, then Atlanta would cover but I'm staying out of this one. First of, the Vikings solid defense will watch tape and stop the Saints running game again. The question becomes, can Drew Brees have another game like he had? Well maybe but the edge is on the Vikings and I would wait because this might go to 3 points (or buy the half point). Next, can you really bet against the Patriots vs a team that shouldn't even be in the playoffs? I'm glad the numbers are also there to back this bet. Finally, I'm not backing Bortles again. The confidence isn't there (visiting team with a slight edge on a 7+ spread) to bet on this game anyways
With a current backroll of about $13.5K, we keep the betting pool at 30%. That means that we'll bet $2,100 for each game this week. Lets go!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA | -3.0 | -6.50 | -3.00 | 61.90 |
| TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND | -13.5 | -17.00 | -2.5 | 59.64 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ PITTSBURGH | -7.5 | -3.90 | 3.56 | 51.22 |
| ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 3.0 | -3.00 | -6.00 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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