2017 Week 8 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New England -7.5
Pick 2: Washington +2.5
Pick 3: Buffalo -2.5
Pick 4: Carolina +2

We are going with 3 home spread picks this week, which makes me wonder if the models are a bit biased towards home teams...investigating. Anyways, I'm liking the Patriots crushing the Chargers and Washington as a home dog. Oakland surprised me last week against KC, I really thought we had that game. Unfortunately, any time a team has a chance to finish the game they play conservatively, run the ball 3 times and punt rather than putting the other team out of their misery. I'm not so fond of Carolina but Tampa Bay is potentially the worst team on the league. Other picks I liked were Seattle against a Houston defense without JJ Watt, fading the Steelers and taking Detroit as a home dog on SNF (I might take this depending on the results of the day games).

This NFL week 8 we stay at 15% of bankroll split into 4 games gives us a bet of $400 per NFL football game (ok that's a bit more than 15% bc I rounded). Watch for that 5th pick on Sunday Night Football if the picks go 2-2 or worse. As always, let us know in the comments questions your lock of the week. This week our lock is the Patriots at home, without buying the half point.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND	-7.5	-20.4	-12.89	61.1
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	2.5	-3.3	-5.83	60.5
OAKLAND @ BUFFALO	-3.0	-12.7	-9.67	58.0
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	-2.5	-1.0	1.50	57.6
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT	3.0	9.3	6.33	56.0
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE	-5.5	-8.0	-3.50	55.9
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI	-10.0	-8.0	2.00	54.4
ATLANTA @ NY JETS	4.5	8.6	4.15	52.2
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	-6.7	-3.19	50.0
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA	-13.0	-13.6	-0.60	50.0
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	-7.5	-8.0	-1.50	50.0
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS	-9.0	-10.0	-1.00	50.0
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND	9.5	12.0	2.50	48.4

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 Week 7 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Kansas City -3
Pick 2: NY Giants +5.5
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -5

Finally got my machine learning NFL spread models to work on Python and export the info into HTML! Exciting for a geek like me. Still working on a few formating details (like the number of decimals) but wanted to get it out there so you can see the results from all the games. Of course, I do recommend on betting the top games based on my percent confidence in the model calculation. Some of my models have been improved to take advantage of the tools now available that weren't there before. This gives me optimism to finish this season way high.

The 2017 ATS Standings are now posted and available from the top navigation bar of the page.

Ok so this week we again stay at 15% of bankroll split into 3 games gives us a bet of $520 per NFL football game. Remember that historically my models have performed much better by the end of the season and especially the playoffs which is why some years we finish below 50% throughout the year but positive on bankroll. Good luck! and yes, stay away from the Packers game...and please share your thoughts on which is your sure pick of the week, mine is KC (5-0 ATS this year, killing it!).

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	3.00	16.50	13.50	63.2
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS	5.50	4.37	-1.13	59.1
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-5.00	-6.17	-1.17	58.9
TAMPA BAY @ BUFFALO	-3.00	-4.56	-1.56	56.9
ARIZONA @ LA RAMS(LONDON)	-3.50	-9.44	-5.94	54.9
DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO	6.00	9.30	3.30	54.3
BALTIMORE @ MINNESOTA	-5.50	-9.04	-3.54	54.2
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND	5.50	7.26	1.76	53.7
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO	3.50	5.00	1.50	53.7
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-3.00	-5.85	-2.85	53.5
ATLANTA @ NEW ENGLAND	-3.50	3.50	7.00	50.9
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-5.00	-1.56	3.44	49.0
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	3.00	12.99	9.99	47.1
DENVER @ LA CHARGERS	-1.50	-0.11	1.39	42.7
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY	5.50	11.85	6.35	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 Week 6 NFL Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: Houston -7.5
Pick 2: Baltimore -6.5
Pick 3: Jacksonville -1
Pick 4: San Francisco +11

Not a bad start! Hope the streak continues this week. Lots of good stuff happening in the back end of NFL pickles machine learning picks. Unfortunately, the front end is still in the works.

We continue soft betting only 15% of the bank. This week we bet 4 games and distribute $400 per game. Lets continue the NFL season strong and let me know what picks you have, which ones you agree with and which ones you strongly disagree. Also, if there is another NFL game that you're confident in, please post it on the comment section.

2017 Week 5 NFL Spread Picks

Pick 1: Indianapolis -1.5
Pick 2: Oakland -2.5
Pick 3: Green Bay +2.5

The computerized machine learning picks are running wild! While I continue to work on the important transition that will set us up for the next 10 years (using open source tools and better analytical algorithms) I can only put the top picks since I don't have the HTML output yet. I'm really hoping next week if I put the hours at night that I need to. Regardless, I'm excited to start the official picks this week with 3 picks I feel good about as you can see above. The other pick I didn't put is the Bears with their #2 pick on the draft starting Monday Night. Depending how things go during the week, I might add it.

As we have done in the past, we will start with a hypothetical $10,000 in the bank. We start the season soft betting only 15% of the bank and as the season progresses we increase up to 30%. This week we bet $1500 total distributed $500 per game. Lets start the season strong and let me know what picks you have, which ones you agree with and which ones you strongly disagree. Also, if there is another NFL game that you're confident in, please post it on the comment section.