2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Wildcard Playoffs
Pick 1: Detroit +8 
Pick 2: Green Bay -4.5
Historically we've done well in the playoffs and specifically the wild card round. Given this year's troublesome record, I'm definitely not as confident as I have been in the past. It doesn't help either that two starting QBs (Oakland and Miami) aren't playing this weekend. The models point to Green Bay, Detroit and Houston (but staying away from this game). We are betting big on Detroit and Green Bay but staying away from the Steelers' massacre of the Dolphins and Houston's bigger upset.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Green Bay -4.5
Historically we've done well in the playoffs and specifically the wild card round. Given this year's troublesome record, I'm definitely not as confident as I have been in the past. It doesn't help either that two starting QBs (Oakland and Miami) aren't playing this weekend. The models point to Green Bay, Detroit and Houston (but staying away from this game). We are betting big on Detroit and Green Bay but staying away from the Steelers' massacre of the Dolphins and Houston's bigger upset.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DETROIT @ SEATTLE | -8 | -5.3 | 2.7 | 59.8% |
| NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY | -4.5 | -9.5 | -5.0 | 59.0% |
| OAKLAND @ HOUSTON | -3 | -6.0 | -3.0 | NA |
| MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH | -10 | -3.0 | 7.0 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
The fiftytwopointfour model sees these two games as the best bets, although both are reliant on a backup quarterback scoring some points so I might just sit this week out and hope for more expected value in the Divisional round.
Dolphins (+10)
Texans/Raiders (Over 37)
Good luck to us all!