2016 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12
Pick 1: Cleveland +7 
Pick 2: Atlanta -4.5
Pick 3: Minnesota +2.5
Pick 4: Los Angeles +7
That's right, Cleveland even with Josh McCown. I would usually stay away from a bet when a key player is out but I do think this benefits Cleveland. There's a pretty high probability that they break their winless record this week so at least here we're hoping they win or lose by less than 7. The others are solid picks except for Los Angeles which I'm not super excited to bet against New Orleans at home.
Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Atlanta -4.5
Pick 3: Minnesota +2.5
Pick 4: Los Angeles +7
That's right, Cleveland even with Josh McCown. I would usually stay away from a bet when a key player is out but I do think this benefits Cleveland. There's a pretty high probability that they break their winless record this week so at least here we're hoping they win or lose by less than 7. The others are solid picks except for Los Angeles which I'm not super excited to bet against New Orleans at home.
Staying at 18% of bankroll, each game gets a $400 bet. Get some wins!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY GIANTS @ CLEVELAND | 7 | -2.0 | -9.0 | 61.7% |
| ARIZONA @ ATLANTA | -4.5 | -8.3 | -3.8 | 59.1% |
| MINNESOTA @ DETROIT | -2.5 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 58.4% |
| LOS ANGELES @ NEW ORLEANS | -7 | -4.0 | 3.0 | 57.8% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI | -7.5 | -6.1 | 1.4 | 54.8% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ BUFFALO | -7 | -5.0 | 2.0 | 54.8% |
| CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE | -4.5 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 53.8% |
| KANSAS CITY @ DENVER | -3.5 | -5.8 | -2.3 | 52.4% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | 8 | 10 | 2.0 | 51.1% |
| GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA | -3.5 | -4.3 | -0.8 | 50.7% |
| WASHINGTON @ DALLAS | -7 | -8.1 | -1.1 | 50.0% |
| SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY | 5.5 | 4.6 | -0.9 | 50.0% |
| CAROLINA @ OAKLAND | -4 | -5.7 | -1.7 | 50.0% |
| SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON | -1 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 48.5% |
| PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS | 6 | -1.6 | -7.6 | NA |
| TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO | 3.5 | -1.3 | -4.8 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
https://vine.co/v/Oz7eFVYauBd
I love that play! He just needs to re-rub that talisman that gave him the magic he had in 2013 with the Bears.
Last week, fiftytwopointfour went 2-1-1 on the picks posted here, and 18-9-1 overall. This week, we've got:
Dolphins (-7.5)
Falcons (-4)
Eagles (-4)
Lions/Vikings (Over 41.5)
Good luck everyone, and Happy Thanksgiving!