I don't have any intuitively sane way to talk about this pick. Without looking at any predictions or statistical model results, I don't see how Carolina is not going to roll past the Broncos. A simple qualitative analysis would say: both defenses are not that different, the offenses are extremely different, therefore Carolina wins by a lot. Yet the spread is at 6 and it doesn't seem to move much more. But the numbers are the numbers and betting emotional picks have bit me in the ass way many times before. So close your eyes, bet Denver and prey that Peyton Manning does one final push to prove he's a hall of famer. Oh and wait til Sunday, the spread is not going lower, if anything it might creep up to a touchdown.
The bet will be 30% of bankroll which is about $1,500 for the game. Good luck!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER - CAROLINA | -6 | -4.1 | 1.9 | 55.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.