I'm still excited about last week's outcome. Watching Seattle get that interception at the end of the game was nerve wrecking. Watching Payton dominate the Patriots was exciting. Now, it's definitely hard to make a choice.
As many of you know, the point spread for this year's Super Bowl opened at 0 and quickly moved to 2.5 for Denver (you may find it at 2 in some places today). Regardless, today is at 2.5 and it is what we are using. I'm on a win big or go home mindset, which makes me happy to see that the confidence for the Super Bowl is high enough to make a pick this year (unlike last year). But I'll remember that the bankroll separated for the Big Game was already under the percentage of the Championship game, that is 25% for 3 games (championship and super bowl) or $600 in our example.
Two great teams that do not surprise anyone where they are. They both deserve to be there, now the question is who will close the deal.
It is worth noting that Seattle had the best defense in terms of points allowed (14.4 vs 24.9) but Denver had by far the best offense getting 37.9ppg vs 26.1. So the question for you is, are you betting for offense or defense? For me I just run my numbers and provide the results. It'll be one of the best Super Bowls ever. Good luck to everyone!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENVER - SEATTLE | 2.5 | -1 | -3.5 | 58.1% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
