Pick 2: Minnesota +1
Pick 3: New England +2
Pick 4: Chicago +2.5
Pick 5: Tampa Bay -2.5
Selected picks last week went 1-1-2, unfortunately because Denver gave up the ball in the last 2 minutes. This will be the last week of unofficial picks and from week 5 forward we'll start tabulating results and making recommendations of what percentage of bankroll to bet every week. We'll also do a bit more explanation as why we think each game is being selected by the probabilities and understand the results coming out along with some high-level NFL analysis. As always, we run the data through our ensemble of algorithms to product computerized NFL picks. Lots of .5 that might be worth buying a few points, up to you. Here are the NFL week 4 point spread predictions:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIAMI @ NEW ORLEANS | -7.0 | -0.6 | 6.4 | 63.7% |
| MINNESOTA - PITTSBURGH, London | -1 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 61.4% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ ATLANTA | -2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 60.0% |
| CHICAGO @ DETROIT | -2.5 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 59.0% |
| ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY | -2.5 | -8.5 | -6.0 | 58.4% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS | 4 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 56.5% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ DENVER | -11.5 | -15.5 | -4.0 | 53.4% |
| WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND | 3 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 51.9% |
| SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 51.9% |
| BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO | 3.5 | 1.5 | -2.0 | 50.1% |
| NY JETS @ TENNESSEE | -4 | -2.2 | 1.8 | 50.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ KANSAS CITY | -5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 50.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 5 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 49.6% |
| DALLAS @ SAN DIEGO | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 49.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9.5 | 8 | -1.5 | 49.1% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
3 comments:
I dont understand your Minnesota / Pittsburgh numbers. I thought Minnesota was favored? You have the spread as -1 so then you have a positive estimated spread so that would mean you think Pitt will win. Why is Minn in bold then?
The numbers are right and positive always means for visiting team. Pittsburgh is favorite. Now some spreads are at -3. This game is in London so there really is no visitin team although the numbers are posted as if Pitt was home but calculations took away the home field advantage.
Excellent pick. Without a doubt, the best game on the board.. but the earliness will no doubt prove me wrong again.
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