Pick 2: Denver -16 PUSH
Pick 3: Green Bay -3
Pick 4: Detroit +1.5
Selected picks last week went 3-1-1. We now have two weeks of data for the year and will continue to wait until week 5 to start official picks and betting strategy. I again downloaded the new weekly data as usual and ran the computerized NFL predictions against the spread for week 3 and this is what I got.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN DIEGO @ TENNESSEE | -3 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 60.9% |
| OAKLAND @ DENVER | -16 | -20.3 | -4.3 | 59.5% |
| GREEN BAY @ CINCINNATI | 3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 58.9% |
| DETROIT @ WASHINGTON | -1.5 | 3 | 4.5 | 58.1% |
| KANSAS CITY @ PHILADELPHIA | -3.5 | -8.3 | -4.8 | 54.7% |
| ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS | -8 | -5.6 | 2.4 | 54.6% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | -10.5 | -16.6 | -6.1 | 53.3% |
| HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 2.5 | -4.8 | -7.3 | 52.0% |
| CLEVELAND @ MINNESOTA | -6 | -12.1 | -6.1 | 51.1% |
| ATLANTA @ MIAMI | -1.5 | -1.8 | -0.3 | 50.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ CAROLINA | 0 | -3 | -3 | 50.0% |
| ST LOUIS @ DALLAS | -4.5 | -7 | -2.5 | 50.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ SEATTLE | -20 | -20.9 | -0.9 | 50.0% |
| TAMPA BAY @ NEW ENGLAND | -7 | -9.9 | -2.9 | 49.0% |
| CHICAGO @ PITTSBURGH | 2.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 48.6% |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | -2.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 48.5% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
1 comments:
I've been reading your blog to help make picks in a weekly NFL point spread pool. Really enjoy the insight and info. Even your "less confident" predictions are more accurate than most of my pool competitors. Keep up the great work!
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