NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3 - 2013

Pick 1: San Diego +3 PUSH
Pick 2: Denver -16 PUSH
Pick 3: Green Bay -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Detroit +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Selected picks last week went 3-1-1. We now have two weeks of data for the year and will continue to wait until week 5 to start official picks and betting strategy. I again downloaded the new weekly data as usual and ran the computerized NFL predictions against the spread for week 3 and this is what I got.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SAN DIEGO @ TENNESSEE -3 2.6 5.6 60.9%
OAKLAND @ DENVER -16 -20.3 -4.3 59.5%
GREEN BAY @ CINCINNATI 3 7.5 4.5 58.9%
DETROIT @ WASHINGTON -1.5 3 4.5 58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -8.3 -4.8 54.7%
ARIZONA @ NEW ORLEANS -8 -5.6 2.4 54.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 -16.6 -6.1 53.3%
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE 2.5 -4.8 -7.3 52.0%
CLEVELAND @ MINNESOTA -6 -12.1 -6.1 51.1%
ATLANTA @ MIAMI -1.5 -1.8 -0.3 50.0%
NY GIANTS @ CAROLINA 0 -3 -3 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ DALLAS -4.5 -7 -2.5 50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ SEATTLE -20 -20.9 -0.9 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -9.9 -2.9 49.0%
CHICAGO @ PITTSBURGH 2.5 5.3 2.8 48.6%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -2.5 6.3 8.8 48.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

gpdb said...

I've been reading your blog to help make picks in a weekly NFL point spread pool. Really enjoy the insight and info. Even your "less confident" predictions are more accurate than most of my pool competitors. Keep up the great work!