NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1 - 2013

Pick 1: Miami +1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

As I mentioned and explain in my previous post, these are unofficial picks. Meaning my models need at least 4 weeks of data for them to become useful and accurate. So although we post these computerized picks here, we don't use them or tabulate the end results in our results table on the right hand side of this page. Still, I like to run them because people ask for them to simply see what the outputs look like. Be patient and don't bet on these picks. We'll wait a few weeks and then bank on our statistical point spread predictions that have proven successful for the past 6 years. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MIAMI @ CLEVELAND -1 6.3 7.3 60.0%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -3 2.5 5.5 59.9%
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH -7 -13.3 -6.3 58.1%
BALTIMORE @ DENVER -7.5 -9.2 -1.7 56.1%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS -4.5 -8.4 -3.9 53.8%
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO -4.5 -8.0 -3.5 53.8%

HOUSTON @ SAN DIEGO
4
1
-3
51.9%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA
3.5
4.2
0.7
51.9%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS
-3.5
-3
0.5
51.8%
CINCINNATI @ CHICAGO
-3
-5.8
-2.8
51.4%
TAMPA BAY @ NY JETS
3
9.6
6.6
51.1%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
-5.5
2.0
7.5
50.0%
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS
-9.5
-7.7
1.8
50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
9.5
6.5
-3.0
50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON
-3.5
-11.2
-7.7
49.2%
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE
3.5
-5.3
-8.8
49.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

Kenneth said...

Math error Balt - Dnvr game. Apparently when the spread changed, the difference (Col 3) did not. What kind of a spreadsheet is that....?

Ken

Jaime Brugueras said...

Not sure I follow Kenneth. I know the spread change but by the time I went to get the spreads, last night, that's what it was.

Jaime Brugueras said...

1-2 for week 1. Actually better than most week ones where I've gone blank. No worries, just capturing data at this point.

Kingkhon said...

System is 5-10 pending 2 games. System plays houston and wash. Ill be fading it.