Week 9 2012 NFL Point Spread Picks
Pick 1: New Orleans -3 
Pick 2: Baltimore -3.5
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5
Statfox, the main site where I get most of my stats, has been down this week. I think it is due to hurricane Sandy but I'm not sure nor have they said anything on Twitter.
I don't buy the streaks that handicappers come up with. It is pure coincidence. For example, a basic one like homedogs are 61% this year or more complex ones like teams with less than 7 turnovers, 200yds passing/game, and QB is white are 76% ATS. Well this week we are going with two homedogs and against one homedog (BAL). New Orleans favorite at home as the top pick. Good luck.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Baltimore -3.5
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2.5
Pick 4: Tennessee +3.5
Statfox, the main site where I get most of my stats, has been down this week. I think it is due to hurricane Sandy but I'm not sure nor have they said anything on Twitter.
I don't buy the streaks that handicappers come up with. It is pure coincidence. For example, a basic one like homedogs are 61% this year or more complex ones like teams with less than 7 turnovers, 200yds passing/game, and QB is white are 76% ATS. Well this week we are going with two homedogs and against one homedog (BAL). New Orleans favorite at home as the top pick. Good luck.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ORLEANS | -3 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 67.5% |
| BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND | 3.5 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 59.5% |
| MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS | 2.5 | -3 | -5.5 | 58.7% |
| CHICAGO @ TENNESSEE | 3.5 | -2 | -5.5 | 58.7% |
| DENVER @ CINCINNATI | 3.5 | 0.9 | -2.6 | 54.1% |
| MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE | -5 | -8.2 | -3.2 | 53.8% |
| CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON | -3 | -5.3 | -2.3 | 52.1% |
| DALLAS @ ATLANTA | -4 | -5.2 | -1.2 | 52.1% |
| DETROIT @ JACKSONVILLE | 3.5 | 2 | -1.5 | 51.9% |
| BUFFALO @ HOUSTON | -10.5 | -15.7 | -5.2 | 51.6% |
| KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO | -7.5 | -13.8 | -6.3 | 51.1% |
| ARIZONA @ GREEN BAY | -11 | -12.9 | -1.9 | 51.1% |
| TAMPA BAY @ OAKLAND | -1.5 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 50.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ NY GIANTS | -3 | -6.1 | -3.1 | 49.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
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