2012 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

Pick 1: Washington +2
Pick 2: San Diego -1.5
Pick 3: Seattle -3

Last minute due to a business trip. I'm just happy I was able to get them out. It's 3 hours before game time and 3 visiting teams we would be betting on. Next week, we officially start keeping track and making bets. Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 4 of the 2012 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY	-2	4.8	6.8	62.9%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	1.5	4.4	2.9	60.1%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	3	10.5	7.5	59.1%
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE	1	3.4	2.4	57.1%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-7	-4.2	2.8	56.8%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	-4	-8.6	-4.6	55.9%
NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY	-7.5	-4.9	2.6	55.8%
MIAMI @ ARIZONA	-5	-3.6	1.4	55.6%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY JETS	4.5	1.9	-2.6	54.1%
CHICAGO @ DALLAS	-3.5	-3.0	0.5	53.8%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-2.3	0.2	53.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	4	11.0	7.0	51.1%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	-12	-10.6	1.4	48.1%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-7	-9.5	-2.5	48.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Spread Picks 2012 Week 3

Pick 1: Green Bay -3
Pick 2: Chicago -7
Pick 3: Oakland +3.5

Thanks for all the encouragement after missing last week's picks. Although we don't fully start counting results until week 5, I've never missed a week in 5 years. Last year was tough but I shouldn't give up and I won't. We've had great years too. I'm changing a few things on the algorithms which will be back-tested and hope to find one that's more successful. I'll try to publish these NFL spread picks a lot sooner than Saturday night in the coming weeks.

This week two NFC North teams come out as having great chances of winning against the spread. I of course like the Chicago pick, go Bears, and if Green Bay's defense looks as solid as last Thursday then I'm confident we'll get at least 2 of 3. Final pick is Oakland underdog at home. That's enough bla, bla, bla which we'll be seeing less of and just concentrate on providing

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 3 of the 2012 NFL season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE	3	5.6	2.6	64.9%
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO	-7	-12.6	-5.6	63.9%
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND	3.5	-1.0	-4.5	58.7%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	1.3	4.3	58.0%
HOUSTON @ DENVER	2	5.0	3.0	57.1%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA	3	5	2.0	54.1%
DETROIT @ TENNESSEE	3.5	5	1.5	54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS	-8	-13.2	-5.2	51.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	-0.4	2.1	50.0%
ATLANTA @ SAN DIEGO	-3	-1.1	1.9	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ORLEANS	-8.5	-18.9	-10.4	49.8%
CINCINNATI @ WASHINGTON	-3	-8.0	-5.0	48.7%
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND	3	5.1	2.1	48.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MINNESOTA	7	4	-3	47.3%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	2	5	3	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5
Pick 2: Jets -3
Pick 3: New Orleans -7.5

Whew! Almost didn't even make for Sunday's games. As always, these picks are unofficial as we start counting, usually, on week 5. There are a couple of reasons why this year's first week picks are posted so late in the week and I'm hoping to improve it as the season progresses.

• Like everyone, automated emails keep me busy
• There are a few factors in the algorithm that I'm working on:
  • weighting - some people call it the "forgetting factor"
  • thresholding - measurements taken to decrease the impact of high margin games
  • defensive and offensive impact on forecasts
• family - I love my kids and prefer spending time with them. Which then is taking a larger toll on my nights

There are still two flaws in the model that I have not been able to address or put time into:
1. How to account for strength of schedule in the forecasts
2. Injury impact on result of games (the only solution here would start with player level data which I don't have)

I'm first going to work on the first few I mentioned. Now being part of a tech space in Chicago, it is easier to recruit a partner in crime so we can really improve this. We update our software every week! And here, I haven't touched or revised the algorithm in two years.

We're glad to have been able to post these so that our friends at thepredictiontracker.com can continue to track our success throughout the year.

Again, these are unofficial picks to allow the model a few weeks to capture some of this year's data.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
JACKSONVILLE @ MINNESOTA	-3.5	-8.4	-4.9	59%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-3	-6.1	-3.1	58%
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.5	-4.0	3.5	58%
ST LOUIS @ DETROIT	-8.5	-3.2	5.3	56%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	-0.6	-3.1	56%
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	-4.5	-9.3	-4.8	56%
PHILADELPHIA @ CLEVELAND	9.5	8.9	-0.6	55%
MIAMI @ HOUSTON	-13	-2.2	10.8	54%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO	-10	-3	7	53%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	2.5	-10.7	-13.2	47%
NEW ENGLAND @ TENNESSEE	5	-6.9	-11.9	46%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-7	-19.3	-12.3	46%
ATLANTA @ KANSAS CITY	2.5	10.1	7.6	42%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	-1	9.2	10.2	41%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER	-1.5	15.1	16.6	41%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.