2011 NFL Picks Week 5

Pick 1: San Diego -4 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Kansas City +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Cincinnati +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston -5.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Tampa Bay +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Are you ready for the "Beginning" of the season? This week NFLpickles picks become official.

Why is NFLpickles awesome? I've been doing this since 2007 and posted all results here for you to track. Unlike other handicappers out there, you will see when I do well and when we don't. If I do well and you use my picks, we both do well.

The other important strategic piece is how the money is handled. It optimizes gain and reduces risk for bankruptcy. As last year, we continue using Kelly's Formula to compute the percentage of the bankroll to use each week. The result for this week was 17%, but to play a bit conservatively during this first few weeks of betting, we'll bring it down to 15% of bankroll(this year NFL Pickles bankroll starts at $3,000). $450/5=$90 per game.

This is why last year we ended up only at 52% ATS, but still came out with almost 20% ROI. Not a great year, but good enough.

This year I won't be able to comment much and dig deeper in each game. Work has taken over, but at least I have found time in the middle of the night to run the models and update the blog just before Sunday. For those wondering, I did not make any changes to the algorithm during the off-season. Let's crush it this year.

As always, your comments and picks are very valuable. Please comment or let me know if there is key injury in one of the game I chose, because although I check the NFL injury report every week, I could've missed something.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON-5.5-93.558.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA6.515.28.756.5%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND-9-14.4-5.454.8%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA-2.5-7-4.551.4%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS-10-17.4-7.437.9%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


DDW said…

This is DDW. I'm pretty sure Andre Johnson is out for todays game against Oakland. Was that taken into account before you posted your pick for Houston?
DDW said…
My picks compared to yours:

SD -4
IND -2
CIN +2
SF -3

Good luck to you!
Jaime said…
no, i didn't factor that in, but shouldve.

I really like that SD pick too. We'll see. Good luck to you too.