2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 1-2 and overall the picks were at a mere 23% ATS and 47% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles' week 4 picks:































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY1.5-6.5-8.062.0%
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON-43760.9%
DENVER @ GREEN BAY-13-17.5-4.560.5%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE4.514.610.159.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND4.510.35.859.6%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA-7-8.0-1.055.1%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO-7-10-354.1%
NY JETS @ BALTIMORE-3.5-1.22.353.6%
DETROIT @ DALLAS-1-2.3-1.353.6%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI3-1.7-4.751.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TAMPA BAY-10-0.59.551.5%
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND-1-1.9-0.950.7%
WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS06.16.150.4%
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO-6.5-33.550.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE75.8-1.250.0%
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA1.5-3-4.549.6%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

1 comments:

probablepicks.com said...

Hi Jaime,

Did you make any changes to your model in the off season? Looking forward to your real picks starting...