2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4
No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 1-2 and overall the picks were at a mere 23% ATS and 47% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles' week 4 picks:
How to read the table:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY | 1.5 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 62.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON | -4 | 3 | 7 | 60.9% |
| DENVER @ GREEN BAY | -13 | -17.5 | -4.5 | 60.5% |
| ATLANTA @ SEATTLE | 4.5 | 14.6 | 10.1 | 59.5% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND | 4.5 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 59.6% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA | -7 | -8.0 | -1.0 | 55.1% |
| MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO | -7 | -10 | -3 | 54.1% |
| NY JETS @ BALTIMORE | -3.5 | -1.2 | 2.3 | 53.6% |
| DETROIT @ DALLAS | -1 | -2.3 | -1.3 | 53.6% |
| BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI | 3 | -1.7 | -4.7 | 51.7% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ TAMPA BAY | -10 | -0.5 | 9.5 | 51.5% |
| TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND | -1 | -1.9 | -0.9 | 50.7% |
| WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS | 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 50.4% |
| CAROLINA @ CHICAGO | -6.5 | -3 | 3.5 | 50.3% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE | 7 | 5.8 | -1.2 | 50.0% |
| NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA | 1.5 | -3 | -4.5 | 49.6% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Did you make any changes to your model in the off season? Looking forward to your real picks starting...