2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went 1-2 and overall the picks were at a mere 23% ATS and 47% straight up. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. Here are NFLpickles' week 4 picks:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY	1.5	-6.5	-8.0	62.0%
PITTSBURGH @ HOUSTON	-4	3	7	60.9%
DENVER @ GREEN BAY	-13	-17.5	-4.5	60.5%
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE	4.5	14.6	10.1	59.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND	4.5	10.3	5.8	59.6%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA	-7	-8.0	-1.0	55.1%
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO	-7	-10	-3	54.1%
NY JETS @ BALTIMORE	-3.5	-1.2	2.3	53.6%
DETROIT @ DALLAS	-1	-2.3	-1.3	53.6%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI	3	-1.7	-4.7	51.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TAMPA BAY	-10	-0.5	9.5	51.5%
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND	-1	-1.9	-0.9	50.7%
WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS	0	6.1	6.1	50.4%
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO	-6.5	-3	3.5	50.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE	7	5.8	-1.2	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA	1.5	-3	-4.5	49.6%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.