2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2

No picks this week. Historically, my picks are innacurate at the beginning of the season. Last week, our "top picks" went only 2-2 although overall all the picks were 68% ATS and 75% straight up, not bad. Still, the statistical models need to pick up more data. I'm only posting these so that you can track my progress. Use at your own risk, you've been warned. Be patient, this year we're going to crush it!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ CAROLINA9.521.011.561.1%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI3-1.8-4.858.7%
ARIZONA @ WASHINGTON-4-17.0-13.058.1%
ST LOUIS @ NY GIANTS-4.5-6.5-2.057.5%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA2.5-1.3-3.854.7%
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT-8.5-53.551.5%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY JETS-9.5-10.5-1.050.0%
OAKLAND @ BUFFALO-3.5-2.01.550.0%
SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH-14.5-122.550.0%
TAMPA BAY @ MINNESOTA-3-5.0-248.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


Anonymous said…
3-0-1 for me last week, though somehow I forgot to post my picks here.

Still, it's pretty neat to see NFL Pickles in the top 5 ATS on The Prediction Tracker.

This week I've got:

197 Bears +7
216 Colts +1.5
223 Bengals +4

Good luck, as always.
Jaime said…
dtBy Definitely agree with the Bears pick, especially if you can get it at 7.
Colts is a dangerous pick, Peyton is not playing right?

Also like your Bengals pick. I remember disliking Orton and his lack of long passes when he was in Chicago. Denver is starting to see that.

The Prediction Tracker top 5 is neat, but consistency is the key. We shall see if I just got lucky the first week or if I can keep up the pace.
Thank you as always.
desertbug said…
Can you explain the "confidence" factor column. If that is a probablility <50%, then does it suggest that the prediction should actually be reversed? I know you are using some statistical shorthand here, but maybe an explanation of that area for those of us less familiar..
Jaime said…
It would suggest that, but most times it is small enough that a reverse pick would not be a good one.