2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1
No picks this week. Historically, my picks are bad at the beginning of the season and the first week even worst. The statistical models need to pick up data in order to be more accurate. The system does not account for trades or important players not in the roster. I'm only posting these so that you and sites like thepredictiontracker.com can track my progress. Use at your own risk, you've been warned. Be patient, this year we're going to crush it!
How to read the table:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY | -1.5 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 61.9% |
| DALLAS @ NY JETS | -4.5 | -9.5 | -5 | 59.7% |
| ATLANTA @ CHICAGO | 3 | 6 | 3 | 58.6% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | -8.5 | -10 | -1.5 | 57.3% |
| TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE | -1 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 56.0% |
| PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE | -2.5 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 55.9% |
| OAKLAND @ DENVER | -3 | 15.2 | 18.2 | 55.5% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ ST LOUIS | 5 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 54.5% |
| CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | -6.5 | 3.1 | 9.6 | 54.2% |
| MINNESOTA @ SAN DIEGO | -8.5 | -3.3 | 5.8 | 52.3% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ GREEN BAY | -4 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 51.4% |
| BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | -6 | -5 | 1 | 51.3% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI | 7 | 34.1 | 27.1 | 50.4% |
| SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | -5.5 | -16.2 | -10.7 | 50.3% |
| CAROLINA @ ARIZONA | -7 | -10 | -3 | 50.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON | 3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
I post Tuesday night or Wednesday night at the latest.