2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 5

Pick 1: Arizona -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $59.09
Pick 2: Minnesota -9.5 (-110) correct NFL point spread pick + $77.27
Pick 3: NY Giants -16 (-110) correct NFL point spread pick + $50
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $63.64

Crunching the numbers is the easy part, making the pick is the hard part. But "Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say". They do not say who will cover, but who has the most chance to cover.

For this week we have 4 NFL favorites undermined by their power to destroy their weak opponent. Distributing $275 on the four games which is approximately 23% of the bankroll, putting more weight on the Vikings and Indianapolis game.

CIN @ BAL - Baltimore's linebacker Brendon Ayanbadejo has been put on the injured list. I'm staying away from this game, won't regret it regardless of what happens.

MIN @ STL $85 - Should we keep banking on the Rams losing streak, why not? There is no respect for the Vikings with a spread of 9.5 or even 10. After Monday Night's game, Favre and Peterson could be a killer combination if both are on. The Viking defense is not bad either.

HOU @ ARI $65 - I smell 'underratedness' for the NFC champs. Coming out of a bye week and a slow start, the Cardinals come to their senses and have a comfortable win at home.

OAK @ NYG $55 - I admit I almost backed out of this one because of the 16 point spread. The confidence is high and the prediction is two points above spread. The Giants can score and lead the league in the least yds allowed per game.

IND @ TEN $70 - Tennessee's defense will not be able to stop red hot Manning.


GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE-8.5-9.0-0.565%
MINNESOTA @ ST LOUIS9.511.41.963%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE3.510.06.561%
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA-5.5-9.0-3.559%
OAKLAND @ NY GIANTS-16-18.8-2.857%
JACKSONVILLE @ SEATTLE3-3.6-6.654%
PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT10.515.04.553%
DALLAS @ KANSAS CITY8.55.6-6.151%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO-2.5-2.9-0.450%
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA-3.57.811.350%
CLEVELAND @ BUFFALO-6-2.53.550%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER30.0-3.048%
TAMPA BAY @ PHILADELPHIA-15-22.0-7.046%
NY JETS @ MIAMI2-9.2-11.240%

9 comments:

siggy said...

Hey Jamie--was on vacation last week, but was all over Minny on Monday. Also had Balt., Gints, and Denver on Sunday.
This week my best are Colts--Carolina--Seattle (with Harbaugh) and Denver again. I will use Minny if Harbaugh doesn't play. The only pick of yours that I disagree with is Arizona. I see that game as a field goal either way.

DDW said...

My picks didn't work out too well last week. Let's hope this week goes a bit better. Mine compared to yours:

HOU +5.5
MIN -9.5
NYG -16 (If Eli is playing)
IND -3.5

Seems like my picks match siggy's. Hopefully all 3 of us are correct on the other 3 games.

Good luck

dtBy said...

No differences to report this week, either. I really wanted to take the other side of the Raiders/Giants, but, unfortunately, I actually watched the Raiders play last week.

For those looking to fade me, my best pick this week is Broncos +3.5.

Good luck!

Joel said...

Of your games, I agree with

Minnesota -9.5
Arizona -5.5

The other two are too close to call for me.

IF I were to pick on the Giants and Colts game I would side with you.

Jaime said...

Everybody is agreeing, that is no fun. I want disagreement. Since two of you mentioned the Broncos covering this week, I will disagree, here is why:

- Denver is overrated
- Two of their wins were against Oakland and Cleveland.
- Orton sucks
- New England, only two years ago, went undefeated.

Good luck all!

Joel said...

Maybe our models are too similar :)
Obviously they aren't too similar as I would agree with all of your picks.

Guess we will have to wait till you make a pick I can disagree with you on.

siggy said...

Jamie-again you prove that you are "THE MAN". Great week. You were both good and a little lucky (Ariz./Hstn.)

siggy said...

Oh yeah by the way--great decision on staying away from Baltimore even though they were your models highest pick. I am impressed.

HappyBreathNet said...

When do you post your picks? We post ours every Wednesday or Thursday prior to the games. I'd be curious to follow your picks for a while. I'll come have a look once you've posted your week six picks.

Our model is running 69% on best bets, 58% on bet units YTD. We post the cumulative distribution function and an adjusted cumulative distribution function for each event (line and over/under) of each week. We also publish expectation value, ROI, and odds of losing for the week. We're happy to say that our actual values YTD are at the center of the distribution for expectations.

http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/2009_YTD_nfl_analysis.html