Super Bowl XLIII (43) Point Spread Pick

This has been quite a disappointing year. As of today, I am not sure what is going to happen. The model needs work and my current ventures with and a new born son do not give me the time I need in order to develop something useful. Injuries are plaguing the model. There is no way for me right now of accounting for the fact that, say, Parker was out half the season and when he is in the game, the Steelers are a totally different team. For the sake of finishing the year, here is the story for this Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 43 will be the 7th Super Bowl with a point spread of 7. The record is 4-2 for the underdog to cover. Now do not go running betting for the underdog, because as you know, 6 is a very low sample to trust. I ran the model and as expected, Pittsburgh gets hammered down probably because of Parker's absences. It predicts the Steelers to win, but by a close margin of about 3. I am going to go with this pick.

Kurt Warner is an experienced player with 2 very good wide receivers. Just throw it far and in the air and one of those guys will catch it right? Not really, Pit's defense is the best in the league. Warner will not make the mistakes needed to lose to Pit by more than 7. The Steelers had very close games this year of which they came out triumphantly. So here's my prediction: Steelers win, but do not cover. Good luck to you all.

Super Bowl Pick: Arizona +7 correct NFL point spread pick


siggy said…
Jaime , I for one do hope that you return. I have enjoyed reading your insights. Don't get overly frustrated and again my tip is that your model needs to be more flexible as to incorporating "what is working now" into it. Looking forward to the future. Thanks again--Jerry