Before looking at my picks I thought Philadelphia would be the game that would be way off. It is not, according to my model it is priced efficiently. Still, the computer predicts Philadelphia by 4 when they are favorites by 3.
Consensus likes Baltimore also, 60% confirming they will beat the spread. Philadelphia, on the other hand, I am really surprised that the consensus is slightly favoring (53%) Arizona to cover the spread. In any case, here are my NFL point spread picks for the Conference Championship games:
Pick 1: Visiting Underdogs Baltimore +6 Jacksonville +6

Pick 2: Visiting Favorites Philadelphia -3 Jacksonville +6

As always, read more to find the raw point spread predictions.
Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas |
---|---|---|---|
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA | 3 | 4.1 | 0.7 |
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH | -6 | 6.3 | 12.3 |
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