Super Bowl XLIII (43) Point Spread Pick

This has been quite a disappointing year. As of today, I am not sure what is going to happen. The model needs work and my current ventures with Mineful.com and a new born son do not give me the time I need in order to develop something useful. Injuries are plaguing the model. There is no way for me right now of accounting for the fact that, say, Parker was out half the season and when he is in the game, the Steelers are a totally different team. For the sake of finishing the year, here is the story for this Super Bowl.

Super Bowl 43 will be the 7th Super Bowl with a point spread of 7. The record is 4-2 for the underdog to cover. Now do not go running betting for the underdog, because as you know, 6 is a very low sample to trust. I ran the model and as expected, Pittsburgh gets hammered down probably because of Parker's absences. It predicts the Steelers to win, but by a close margin of about 3. I am going to go with this pick.

Kurt Warner is an experienced player with 2 very good wide receivers. Just throw it far and in the air and one of those guys will catch it right? Not really, Pit's defense is the best in the league. Warner will not make the mistakes needed to lose to Pit by more than 7. The Steelers had very close games this year of which they came out triumphantly. So here's my prediction: Steelers win, but do not cover. Good luck to you all.

Super Bowl Pick: Arizona +7

2008 NFL Spread Picks Conference Championship

Four teams left, three games to go and although we've had a rough year in 2008, I hope to come out perfect in the playoffs. I said I liked Baltimore to win it all this year and Mr. Flacco would become quite a rookie sensation after it. The computer picks are pointing at Baltimore being very underrated this week. My model is predicting Baltimore by 6 when it is Pittsburgh at home that is favorite by 6.

Before looking at my picks I thought Philadelphia would be the game that would be way off. It is not, according to my model it is priced efficiently. Still, the computer predicts Philadelphia by 4 when they are favorites by 3.

Consensus likes Baltimore also, 60% confirming they will beat the spread. Philadelphia, on the other hand, I am really surprised that the consensus is slightly favoring (53%) Arizona to cover the spread. In any case, here are my NFL point spread picks for the Conference Championship games:

Pick 1: Visiting Underdogs Baltimore +6 Jacksonville +6
Pick 2: Visiting Favorites Philadelphia -3 Jacksonville +6

As always, read more to find the raw point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA	3	4.1	0.7
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-6	6.3	12.3

Divisional Picks 2008

I apologize to everyone that follows my blog weekly for not submitting the computer point spread picks last week. The reason being was that I took a vacation to the beautiful island of Puerto Rico. Although you can find internet everywhere, I just could not find the time to sit down on a computer and run the point spread model. You can blame it on a combination of factors including: golf, beach, rain forest, sight seeing, and a baptism fiesta.

I am back in Chi-town ready to see my divisional playoff point spread picks win. This week, unfortunately, the predictions are very close to the Vegas point spread for all games. In a wager situation, I would sit out this week because nothing is standing out screaming a pick. For fun's sake I will pick each game and give you my picks and point spread predictions. Here are this week's NFL point spread picks:

SATURDAY:
Pick 1: Visiting Underdogs Baltimore +3
Pick 2: Visiting Underdogs Arizona +9.5

SUNDAY:
Pick 3: Home Favorites Pittsburgh -6

In general I am comfortable with the results to these picks. Halfway through the season, I thought I would not bet against the Giants and I still hold this opinion. The model shows Philadelphia covering, but barely so this game will be out for this week. I like Baltimore (even winning the Super Bowl) and the Carolina game has a wide spread for a divisional playoff game. San Diego's run will be stopped by the home mighty Steeler defense.

Read more to see the point spread predictions for each of the 4 divisional playoff games.

Good luck!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-4	-3.9	0.1
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE	-3	-2.8	0.2
SAN DIEGO @ PITTSBURGH	-6	-4.2	1.8
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA	-9.5	-3.5	6.0