Afterthoughts Week 13

Why were the picks so good this week? Was it because in this odd week visiting teams covered the spread in 12 of 16 games and all my picks were for visiting teams? Was it because the model is earning back some of its losses from that past two weeks to jump back to 60% levels? Or was it because my picks did not involve games whose teams did not have serious roster changes? I do not know the answer to these questions, but I do know that we went 4-0 and we are back above 60% ATS!

After two weeks of disappointing results, the predictions really stepped up to the plate this week. Now I am confident again that there is something in this complex statistical model. Many stopped visiting the site because of these two disappointing weeks, but some encouraged me to keep going forward.

Like many statistical models, this one predicts well in the long-run, but is volatile week by week. That is why I encouraged, in a previous blog, to use betting size wisely. In the stock market, it is hard to predict exactly when stocks will hit bottom, but with fundamental analysis, one can spot stocks that will pay back well in the long run. Not all stock picks will pay off, but one makes sure that those that do, do well. My picks and model behave the same, not every week is going to be a winning week, but in the long run and with careful handling of the money, the payoff will be profitable. I cannot be those handicappers that advertise every week that they went 4-0 or 3-1 last week. Nobody can do that, they have to be lying! I can only say that I have been at 60% in my first two years of giving free handicapping picks.

Looking forward to week 14.