2008 NFL Week 17 Picks

In order to keep this experiment running, I will post this week's computer generated picks. This week may be one of the hardest weeks for prediction since there is much more volatility than usual caused by coaches sitting down their key players. Will Eli Manning play the whole game? Will the wide receivers from Arizona play their hardest? True, these player's salary depends on statistics they accumulate the whole year, but risking an injury will cost them more than having a couple more catches.

For us making point spread predictions, we'll stay away from games whose team have already clinched the playoffs. This week, there are two games that really stood out to me as I thought the point spread was a bit off. The statistical model also confirmed this and made me like these two picks even more, these are: Chicago @ Houston and Denver @ San Diego. San Diego favorite by 8? This is going to be a close game my friends. Chicago playing for a playoff hope should not be an underdog. So those are my first two picks. The rest to follow:

Pick 1: Visiting Underdog Denver +8
Pick 2: Visiting Underdog Chicago +3
Pick 3: Visiting Underdog Miami +2.5
Pick 4: Home Favorite Baltimore -12.5
Pick 5: Visiting Underdog Washington +3 PUSH

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas

ST LOUIS @ ATLANTA
-14

clinch

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SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
-7
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OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY
-13
-18.0
-5.0
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
-11

-15.4
-4.4
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA
-1
-4.7
-3.7
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI
-2.5
-5.5
-3.0
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO
6
4.4
-1.6
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE
-12.5
-16.2
-3.7
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
2.5
2.2
-0.3
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH
-11
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MIAMI @ NY JETS
-2.5
1.5
4.0
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO
-8
-3.6
4.4
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS
3
clinch
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WASHINGTON @ SAN FRANCISCO
-3
5.8
8.8
CHICAGO @ HOUSTON
-3
7.3
10.3
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA
-7
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