2008 NFL Week 16 Picks

Regardless of how awkward the picks might seem, last week showed me there is no sure pick. Who would have thought that Cincinnati could beat Washington? How many think Jacksonville can beat the Colts? Or Seattle beating the Jets? It can happen. When you look closely at the Colts scores, a lot of their games have been close. Yes, they have 7 in a row which makes it a scary bet.

I will not try to make the case for each pick this week. In this exciting NFL week, it will be strictly the model making the picks. We'll stick to the theory I proposed in my previous blog because I do believe this model is of good value. The theory was to pick the games with the highest difference between the point spread prediction and the Vegas spread. Games with teams that have clinched playoff spots are out. The question is how many games; this week lets pick those games with difference of 5 points or more (except for the Tampa Bay pick). Without further ado, here are week 16 NFL picks of the week:

NO Pick 1: HOMEDOG Seattle +5 injury
Pick 2: HOMEDOG Jacksonville +6
Pick 3: Visiting Favorite San Francisco -5.5
Pick 4: Visiting Favorite Houston -7
Pick 5: Home Favorite Tampa Bay -3.5

Good luck!

As always, if you read more you will find the point spread predictions for each game of the week. Notice I have remove the confidence measure, it was about time.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas
NY JETS @ SEATTLE	+5.5	injury	NA
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	6	0.9	-5.1
MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY	4	-1.0	-5.0
BUFFALO @ DENVER	-7	-11.7	-4.7
SAN DIEGO @ TAMPA BAY	-3.5	-8.0	-4.5
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS	-3	-7.2	-4.2
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	-3	-6.7	-3.7
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	-4	-6.7	-2.7
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE	2	-0.7	-2.7
BALTIMORE @ DALLAS	-4	-2.0	2.0
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	5	7.2	2.2
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA	-3.5	-1.0	2.5
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT	7	11.4	4.4
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND	7	13.0	6.0
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	5.5	12.9	7.4
ARIZONA @ NEW ENGLAND	-8	2.3	clinch