2008 NFL Week 15 Picks

Last week the picks did not go well and I do not have much explanation other than bad luck. Any betting system will have streaks of good and bad luck, the important thing is to stay calm in both states. Keep your pick and betting strategy constant. For amount allocation stay with Kelly's formula and bet proportional to your bankroll. Not only will your chances of ruin are almost zero, but also when the winning streaks come, your winnings will increase exponentially.

As of this week, some teams have already clinched their spot on the playoffs. My stats cannot account for benching star players and for players not giving their 100%. That is, my model assumes that each player and coach will play with the same intensity and desire to win as throughout the year. For that reason, we will stay away from such games.

This week, the model predicted 4 visiting team favorites. For these games it might be that the home-field advantage is over estimated. Some of these games have also over shadowed teams that have been performing not so well recently, but still have a decent team. For example, Green Bay @ Jacksonville. Green Bay, although a very unstable team right now which I thought deeply to stay away from, has demonstrated a this year a few times that it can play. Rogers is good, well at least when facing bad defenses. The Jaguars on the other hand have probably thrown the towel. The market has devalued the Packers almost to the Jaguars level, buy low, Green Bay.

Kansas City has definitely improved but they are still a struggling team. Although the Chargers beat them by a point at home, they are coming off a strong win. Their mere hopes of playoffs is still alive and will pick up their play Sunday, hopefully.not enough to get swept off by the Chargers. Sell high, buy Chargers.

The next two picks are hitting on other two really struggling teams. Not the Lions, their spread of 17 might be too high, but picking the Lions is a risky move. I am talking about the Bengals and Raiders. They are both going down, by a lot. Well there they are this weeks "computer made" NFL picks. Noticed all 4 picks are VISITING FAVORITES, not my style, but that is just they way it is this week.

Pick 1: VISITING FAVORITE Washington -7 incorrect point spread pick
Pick 2: VISITING FAVORITE Green Bay -2 incorrect point spread pick
Pick 3: VISITING FAVORITE New England -7correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: VISITING FAVORITE San Diego -5.5 incorrect point spread pick

And below, the table with point spread predictions and confidence levels:


GameVegas LineEstimateConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA-3-2.457%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTONNANA
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE-22.956%
WASHINGTON @ CINCINNATI712.661%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO-3-4.653%
SAN FRANCISCO @ MIAMI-6.52.953%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA-3-3.553%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS-35.750%
CLEVELAND @ PHILADELPHIA-14-18.048%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY5.57.048%
DENVER @ CAROLINA-7.5-5.846%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS38.644%
DETROIT @ INDIANAPOLIS-17-13.944%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS-9-4.343%
NEW ENGLAND @ OAKLAND711.358%
GREEN BAY @ JACKSONVILLE24.756%

2 comments:

siggy said...

I have 2 questions about the model.
First--the model shows the Pats to only win by 1.7 at 58%. Why are you picking them? That makes no sense They are favorite by 7 1/2.
Second what did the computer show for the Tennessee at Houston game?
I understand your reasoning for not selecting it but I am curious about what it predicted. Thanks

Jaime said...

The Pats game was a typo, I am pretty sure it was 11.3. I will check tonight, don't have access to the program at work :(

For the Tennessee game, the estimate was around 12 if I remember correctly.