The Other Week 11 NFL Picks

Unfortunately, yesterday's game did not result as we expected but we have 2 picks to make up for it. The Patriots made a great run at the end but fell short of the game and the spread. The good thing is that the loss was just a slight dent on the bankroll. For Thursday's game I had warned about the Patriots' linebacker injury and that it should be considered in the percentage of bankroll to be used for the week. Hopefully, there is plenty left for these Sunday's picks:

Week 11 RESULT: 0-3 What happened?!

Pick 2: Pittsburgh -5 incorrect point spread pick
Last week the Steelers had the same spread against a stronger team and without their starting RB. This week Parker is back, Ben will play well to not lose the starting role and the defense will also help. The Chargers have been playing well lately, but Rivers will have to worry against the number one defense against the pass.

Pick 3: Atlanta -6 incorrect point spread pick
Denver is hurt both on defense and offense. Atlanta is unbeaten at home and those wins have been by wide margins (except against the Bears). I think Vegas has not yet realize that the young guys in Atlanta have learned a lot this season and can play with the big boys.

You can also read more and see the point spread predictions for each game. These were the two games that stood out to me as great picks. Other picks I considered posting were Philadelphia at -9 and Oakland -10.5. Feel free to comment and give your opinions on these games or others.

NFL Point Spread Predictions Week 11:
GameVegas SpreadPredictionConfidence
OAKLAND @ MIAMI-10.5-6.456%


siggy said…
Jaime--I have a question. Can I assume that the Confidence Rate under 50% would be a Confidence Rate of over 50% for the opponent. Eg The Confidence Rate for Phily covering the spread is 45%. Does that mean that Cincy would be 55% to cover? If so what would be the logic of choosing Phily? Thanks
Jaime said…
Siggy - This is a question I have asked myself many times. My conclusion is yes, but it depends. Yes, the confidence for Cincy covering is 55%, but that does not necessarily mean I would choose Cincy to cover.

In the Philly game, the model is picking up a trend where the spread is heavily for the visiting team, the visiting team has the stats to back it up, but for some reason the home team ends up covering 55% of the time.

I usually bet the opposite, in this case Cincy, when the confidence is a bit higher. For example, I have noticed times when the home team is favorite by less than 3 points, the visiting team is on a short-term streak, the model predicts the visiting team to cover (because of recent stats), but the home team ends up covering 62% of the time.

I have not told you yet which of my picks I have gotten this way, I will start doing that from now on. Both picks this week are straight up winners, model predicting well for both Atlanta and Pittsburgh. What do you think of these 2 picks?

Good luck!
siggy said…
I like the Atlanta pick but Pitt. has me a bit perplexed.I know I liked Pitt last week and you were against them and this week my numbers tell me Sandy. I see that you chose the Pats though not because the model predicted them but because of that 2-4 pt. HF deal when visitor is on a streak. I did go with the Jets. My numbers for this week give me Tennessee, Arizona, Detroit and San Diego with a strong lean to New Orleans.Now I'm not sure what to do with that Pitt game though since it is almost unthinkable for them to lose 3 in a row at home.
AG. said…
Rough week...Pitt game had a super weird ending. I don't know if you follow college, but the USC game was juiced. Thanks for the picks!
Jaime said…
Does anyone know why the last touchdown in the Pittsburgh game did not count? I didn't see a flag and after the review I saw the ref put his hands up saying touchdown. At this point I had already given up on the game and was far away from the TV.
Jaime said…
I found an answer to my own question. 13 penalties for Pittsburgh and 2 for the Steelers, a last second error on call that would have changed the outcome of the cover, hmmm.

Here is what happened according to ESPN.
Unknown said…
If I were to read the posted table for tonights game. It says that there is a 46% chance of Cleveland winning by 1.2 or more?
Jaime said…
Kind of, it says that there is a 46% chance the model is on the right side of the ATS cover. In this case, the prediction is for Cleveland to cover. So, there is a 46% chance Cleveland will cover.