Afterthoughts from Week 9

Thank you to all of you that encouraged me to keep going after week 8's losing streak. We came back with a solid 4-1 ATS in week 9. Your input and encouragement motivates me to improve and put the time to make this work.

One of the biggest benefits I get from doing this week in and week out is the lessons I learn every week. Each lesson I write down in this blog, I carry it with me, and I apply it to my methodology of making picks. As I learn and get experience, I will become a better handicapper.

Here are this week's lessons:

Lesson #1: Don't get greedy

If we've had a perfect or profitable week and there is only Monday Night Football left, why gamble? Even if the confidence measure is the highest for MNF, take your profits and buy a gift for your kid. Wait for the next set of games, there is no rush.

Lesson #2: Check for Key Players Coming Back From Injuries
I need an assistant, help, comments. Someone that tells me, hey Jaime I notice you picked Washington this week, did you notice that Parker is back at the RB position for Pittsburgh this week? Is your NFL model accounting for this? NO. We have a community of readers in this blog that can contribute their knowledge by adding comments to the NFL point spread picks. I will do my part and check more thoroughly for key injuries.

Lesson #3: Ignore Incoherent Trends
Although picking Pittsburgh on MNF based on the election trend would have given me a win, it is better to ignore these coincidences. As most of you have heard, if the Redskins win, the party who won popular vote the previous election wins(used to be party who won the election the previous year until 2000, that is when they changed to popular vote). Looking at the polls and seeing a comfortable Obama lead would have led to a Steelers pick. But come on, this is nuts! Finding a correlation between two completely independent events is not what smart NFL pickers do. Stick to your game plan, ignore incoherent trends, and find patterns that make sense, have significant meaning, and a big sample size.

See you next week!