2008 Week 10 NFL Picks

RESULT: 3-0 Perfect!

Tough week for picks. My statistical model did not find many opportunities and those that did are somewhat sketchy. For example, it found Pittsburgh to win at home, but will Ben play? There is too much uncertainty if he doesn't and I would not recommend the bet. Also found the Jets at home against St. Louis. This game is off the table in many sites so if you can get -8 go for it, anything above that would be a scratch. There were 3 other games whose confidence was not as high as the ones I just mentioned, but that still are great plays.

Without further ado, here are Week's 10 NFL Spread Picks, back with comments:

Pick 1: VISITING UNDERDOGS New York Giants +3 correct NFL point spread pick
If you think these two teams should have the same rankings, then the spread is correctly priced. If not, I would assume you think the Giants are slightly better, so does my computer prediction. Tthis spread should be either a pick or the Giants slightly favored.

Pick 2: VISITING UNDERDOGS Kansas City +15 correct NFL point spread pick
This young team is getting tired of being slapped around. They are not the Rams or the Raiders, they will come out swinging. San Diego has scored well at home this year, but another +15 spread at home is highly unlikely.

Pick 3: VISITING FAVORITES Tennessee -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Last week was Tennessee's first ATS loss, nothing to worry about. The Bears are heavily favored at home because of some 4 or 5 game streak. Pay no attention to that, Tennessee will crush them regardless of who throws the ball for the Bears.

Read more to see the table with the game spread predictions and its confidence (probability of the prediction being on the right side of the spread). Remember, a negative sign implies home team is favorite.

GameVegas SpreadPredictionConfidence
ST LOUIS @ NY JETS-8.5-1158%
DENVER @ CLEVELAND-3-3.550%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA-2.54.556%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH-3-7.957%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA-32.557%
CAROLINA @ OAKLAND9.519.449%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON110.950%
SEATTLE @ MIAMI-8.5-8.150%
TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO36.558%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO-15-959%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND-4-346%
JACKSONVILLE @ DETROIT77.449%
NEW RLEANS @ ATLANTA-1-553%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA-9.5-16.954%

9 comments:

Alexander said...

I'm a bit worried about KC this week. Yes they are young and tired of getting ran over, but with the worst run defense in the league against a great running attack coming off a bye at home, sounds very risky. I'm leaning towards SD this week because i just don't see KC putting up enough points to stay close. I'd project a 31-13 final.

Jaime said...

Alexander you may be right. I think the stats are picking up this year's trend of big underdogs covering the spread. I forget the stats specifically, but something like 11-2 ATS when the spread is more than 9 this year.

I am afraid it will turn around soon and hurt me this week. Hopefully not.

Thanks for your comment, let's see what happens.

siggy said...

I think Pittsburgh is your best selection this week with or without Ben. I can't see how the Colts will handle the Pittsburgh pass rush and they certainly won't run on them. The Colts were all out last week to beat a fair Pats team and they were home. In Pittsburgh's house aginst the class of the AFC they lose by 2 TD's or more.

Jaime said...

Even without Willie Parker? Siggy you might be right, and yes that defense is or will be the new Bears-like defense. But without their main RB and possibly the QB, I am going to have to stay out of it.

AG. said...

AWESOME PICKS! I went with your picks and won. I wish I found your site at the beginning of the season. Thanks, ill be back!

Alexander said...

Wow, great call this week, i went with 2/3 of the picks as i really liked them as well, and it turns out you were right about KC. Still a little shocked on that one, surprising i went against it since i tend to put a lot on the kind of stats you use to make your picks.

Overall, i absolutely adore this site and the idea behind it, been trying to get the motivation for a similar idea for quite some time. Keep up the good work!

siggy said...

Jaimie--you were right on again. Another great week. I am just pigheaded.

Anthony said...

nice week Jaime.

AG. said...
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