2008 NFL Week 12 Picks

Enough crying about last week. We are still at 60% and learning more about becoming a better handicapper every day. This week, the model's point spread predictions follow the same methodology, but the way we make the pick is tweaked a bit.

As we can see from the table below, the following picks have a pretty good confidence and a comfortable difference between the point spread and the Vegas spread: Green Bay +2.5 against New Orleans, Buffalo -3 against KC, Tennessee -5 against the Jets, San Francisco +10.5 against Dallas, and Cleveland -3 against Houston.

Of these picks, the consensus has Cleveland at 65%, Green Bay at 59%, San Francisco at 59%, Buffalo at 55%, and Tennessee at 40%. Now, I am convinced that going with the consensus all the time is not a good strategy because the house will always win. We need a better edge and that is where advance modeling predictions hopefully step in. Combining these two information sources will hopefully provide us with solid picks.

You have to take those consensus picks carefully. For example, Indianapolis, Washington, and New England are the top three this week and my model is not detecting a solid edge on neither of them. Some of the games that I mentioned are backed up by the consensus, except for one of them. This one is the Jets/Titans game. As interesting as this game might be, I will stay out of it. Bettors are favoring the Jets and my model predicts the Titans will win by more than 5. The other games consist of Week 12 NFL Picks:

Week 12 RESULT: 1-3 %$#@&*%$#%^?!

Pick 1: VISITING UNDERDOGS Green Bay +2.5 incorrect point spread pick
Pick 2: VISITING UNDERDOGS Buffalo -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: VISITING UNDERDOGS San Francisco +10.5 incorrect point spread pick
Pick 4: HOME FAVORITES Cleveland -3 incorrect point spread pick

If there is any significant injuries or situation I should be aware of for any of the above picks, please let me know. As always, read more to see the table with point spread predictions for each NFL game.


GameVegas SpreadPredictionConfidence
PHILADELPHIA @ BALTIMORE-1.5-1.251%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE-5-12.058%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA-12.252%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI-20.153%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT8.514.954%
OAKLAND @ DENVER-10-10.550.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ SAN DIEGO-3-3.551%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS-2.53.558%
CHICAGO @ ST LOUIS815.1NA
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA3.54.550%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY3459%
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND-3-860%
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE3.5550%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH-11-9.553%
MINNESOTA @ JACKSONVILLE-3-1.541%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DALLAS-10.5-11.937%

2 comments:

Mike said...

Hey Jaime,

With regards to your San Fran v. Dallas pick. Are you taking into account that Romo is back and should be healthier and less rusty than last week?

Dallas with Romo is a much different team than Dallas with Brad Johnson.

Jaime said...

Mike,

Your question is valid and probably I should have not made a pick on a team which has changed its quarterback recently. Same reason I did not choose New England in the first 6 weeks.

The answer to your question is not really, but indirectly. I cannot measure each player's contribution to the game. With historical offensive stats, spreads, and scores I am constrained to game-level information. Since Romo has been back for only one game, and at the beginning of the year they did well, I think the stats have brought the prediction down a bit for their performance in the past few games without him.