2008 Week 7 NFL Picks

After a disappointing week 6, I am ready to purely stick to the model's prediction. The Giants loss on Monday taught me a big lesson: forget how a team has been performing, judge the spread only, and remember anything can happen. The objective is then to minimize risk, make solid picks, and in the long run it shall pay off.

The NFL Spread Picks of the Week (7) are:

RESULT: 4-1 ALL RIGHT!!!

Pick 1: VISITING FAVORITE Tennessee -8 correct NFL point spread pick

Pick 2: VISITING FAVORITE Indianapolis -2 incorrect point spread pick

Pick 3: VISITING UNDERDOG Seattle +11 correct NFL point spread pick

Pick 4: HOME FAVORITE New England -3 correct NFL point spread pick

Pick 5: HOME FAVORITE Carolina -3 correct NFL point spread pick

I personally like the Colts rise to performance, Kansas City's face-off with the 5-0 Titan's and Seattle's back-up quarterback and high spread against Tampa Bay. I do not like going against the Saints in their current streak nor do I like the Patriots' increasing troubles, but I will stick to predictions and trends and hence pick CAR and NE. As you will see from the table below, other good picks could be: Jets +3 and San Diego 0. Dallas is off the board with Romo's absence.

As requested by various of my readers, below I have attached the raw output table of my model. The prediction and spread are based on the home team meaning if the sign is negative it favors the home team and vice-versa. The percent confidence is a calculation I make in order to determine which games seem like a good betting opportunity.
GameVegas SpreadPredictionConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ GREEN BAY22.764%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND-3-1356%
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY813.157%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO-3-4.554%
DALLAS @ ST LOUIS7No RomoNo Romo
DETROIT @ HOUSTON-9-16.550.5%
SAN DIEGO @ BUFFALO04.954%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND3555%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI105.950%
CLEVELAND @ WASHINGTON-7-12.347%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS-10.5-20.846%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI-3-3.853%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA-3-1.542%
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY-11-14.035%

4 comments:

Anthony said...

your post week 5 stats on the top right of the page should only include week 6 and 7 picks? right now they include week 5.

Kim said...

I agree with anthony. Since you have been saying all year your model kicks in after wk5, then wk 5 should not be included in ATS on front page. You even specifically said during week 5 NOT to use those picks.

While I really support your efforts and enjoy your site, adjusting your front page to now say "ats after week 4" so you can include that 5-1 week #5 in your overall results is typical in the industry and smells fishy to me. You aren't charging for picks so just keep it REAL.

Trustt said...

I too feel this is a misrepresentation of the accuracy of the model. You clearly have developed a robust predictive model, but we need to maintain the integrety of this site by potraying the results accurately. I couldnt agree more with the two previous posts, please adjust the results to properly represent results post week #5.

Jaime said...

I am reporting on top of the page the success of the model from week 5 onwards. If you have been following this blog, you know that my picks are legit and that I am giving you solid picks, better than most professionals, for FREE.

The decision to support the model post week 4 or post week 5 is somewhat arbitrary. Coming into this season, I did not know when a good time would be to start because last year, I was still fixing bugs until week 9.

Most of us were "using" the picks after week 3 of this year. You can accuse me of data snooping since after the fact that the model picked up well some trends on week 5, I decided to make the rule that starting week 5, the model is "useable".

If you do not like the stats on the top right of the page, please feel free to remove 5 wins and a loss and recalculate.

Jaime