2008 Week 6 NFL Picks

Last week, we found various visiting teams that were under-rated and came out to beat the spread. This week, I am finding a similar story. Usually, Vegas assigns a 3-point advantage to the home team. Sometimes bettors increase this home field advantage just because they are "good at home" without considering as much who are they playing against.

After going 5-1 last week, I feel comfortable with the amount of data we have for this year in order to account for this year's trends. I have been quite busy lately balancing work and a new baby. This means that I will keep my comments to a minimum. Last week I posted no comments on the games and look at how good we did, for superstition's sake, I will do the same this week. I was still able to run my model, analyze results, and give you the free nfl picks of the week.

In regards to the confidence measure I used to post that some of you have asked for, I have to work on it and measure its true validity. As for now, I suggest an even distribution of capital across the picks you decide to use.

Point Spread NFL Picks, Week 6:

RESULT: 2-3 It's ok, we'll get'em next week.

Pick 1: VISITING UNDERDOG Jacksonville +3

Pick 2: VISITING UNDERDOG Oakland +7.5

Pick 3: VISITING UNDERDOG New England +5.5

Pick 4: VISITING FAVORITE Dallas -5

Pick 5: HOME FAVORITE New York Jets -6

I have to admit that I was also tempted to pick Detroit, a home underdog by 13 against Minnesota. In order to keep the record for the computer picks only, I will ignore it, but personally sounds like a good pick.