2008 Week 5 NFL Picks

Be patient my friends, the model will be running with enough data after week 5. I suggest not using these picks, but after this week you will see how well the computer picks up trends happening with teams regarding the spread. I do not believe in looking at recent stats like this team has been 4-1 ATS in the past 5 games or this team at home has X ATS record. Those stats like that are interesting but useless.

An NFL spread statistical model can pick up overall trends in previous years and applying that knowledge to the current team trends. That's the secret and that is why I have been successful the past two years. Unfortunately, before week 5, there is not enough data to account for this year's performance.

This week there are some tempting spreads if you are willing to take the -125 odds. These include taking the Colts, Patriots, Chiefs, Seahawks, Buccaneers, or Dolphins Colts and Patriots are favorite by only 3 on the road against Houston and New England, tempting. Cincinnati is underdog by 17 against Dallas, also tempting. The rest I am not sure are worth the odds. But don't jump your boat. That is why I will give for the last week, the DO NOT USE picks of the week:

RESULT: 5-1 We're Back in Business!

Pick 1: Buffalo 0 incorrect point spread pick
Pick 2: Washington +5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
(will Washington's defense shortage hurt them more than Brian Westbrook's abscence? Confidence decreased.)
Pick 3: Tampa Bay +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: New England -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: Cincinnati +17 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 6: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick

1 comments:

Anthony said...

congrats on the week. too bad edwards got injured on the 3rd play of the game. a nice way to enter the much anticipated week 6 picks.