2008 Week 4 NFL Picks

As the model picks up its third week of data, I am starting to feel more comfortable with the computer picks. Still, it is too early to rely completely. I have mentioned that the statistical model will not be in full force until week 5. Nevertheless, it is more fun to see some picks and see how the predictions fare in the early weeks.

Lots of free picks this weeks! Bet wisely, diversify you portfolio with these picks, and enjoy the returns.

Here are the OFFICIAL Week 4 NFL Free Picks:

RESULT: 2-3

Pick 1: Green Bay +1 incorrect point spread pick
After two wins against Minnesota and Detroit, Packers lost to the unstoppable Cowboys. They did not get blown out though. Tampa Bay on the other hand should have lost against the Bears, but due to the Bears lack of skill, they somehow managed to win in OT. This only tells me that Tampa is not as good as people think they are. My model also thinks so. It's predicting Green Bay by 6 points and a 65% confidence of beating the spread.

Pick 2: Arizona +1.5 incorrect point spread pick
How long will the line give so many points for a famous QB? What about the other players? Favre unfortunately can only play QB, not everything else. The Jets roster has not changed much from last year, i.e they still are pretty bad. Their weak offensive line will have Favre running around and under pressure. The Cardinals on the other hand, have played well passing and rushing. Despite their loss to Washington last week, they still managed to play a good game, run for 116 yards and Warner's 192 yards kept them in the game. In brief, Arizona stops the pass (Favre gets 1 TD 1 Int), Warner gets 3 TD, close game, but Jets won't win, Arizona by 5.

Pick 3: Philadelphia -3 incorrect point spread pick
You do not need a Ph.D. in statistics to be all over this game. Orton and the Bears are going nowhere. Hester is back, but so what, just do not kick to him. The Eagles are playing great this year with a close loss only to Dallas. Brian Westbrook will probably be out Sunday night, but McNabb will play. This spread should have been around 6 or 7, is Westbrook worth the 3 or 4 point difference? We'll see. The Bears defense will hold off the Eagles within 10 points, but 3 points is just too low.

Pick 4: Buffalo -8 correct NFL point spread pick
The model is all over this game predicting Buffalo to win by 15 points. That comes as no surprise since the Rams are probably have the worst team ranking and Buffalo is in the top 10. This spread is not 10 or 11 because in the past two games, Buffalo was not able to completely dominate its opponent and only winning by 1 and 4. The other reason is the unpredictable performance of 38 year old Trent Green who starts his first game of the year. I am keeping the pick, and manually lowering the confidence 3 points.

Pick 5: Tennessee -3 Confidence = 53% correct NFL point spread pick
Love the home team favorite by 3 when the model predicts higher. I also like the fact that Tennessee is 3-0 and Minnesota 1-2. Too bad the confidence measure did not turn out to be higher. The Titans' key to its wins has been its defense that ranks third in the NFL overall and blending that with an offense that suddenly looks competent with veteran Kerry Collins operating the controls. Minnesota has Gus Frerotte connecting with ex-Bear Bernard Berrian and Mr. Peterson running more than 100 yards in every game. Makes you think twice about this be, doesn't it? I'm going for it, Tennessee at home wins by 10.

3 comments:

Anthony said...

I have finally found your new location for this blog. I guess I can be happy that it took me this long after looking at your ATS record. I know you do not recommend betting till week five or so but i'm sure the followers find it hard not going with your early season picks.

Can you post that table that lists the confidence, spread prediction, et cetera that you posted last year for each week? It was a nice visual aid ranking the games, even the ones you did not recommend investing in.

Jaime said...

Great to have you back anthony! I stopped doing that because it was so time consuming.

I am working on a way to automize that process. Hopefully, by week 6 I will be able to post the table I used to last year. Yes, that table included spread predictions and probability of success for all games.

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Merry Christmas! And have a good time!