NFL Pre-Season Picks

Should you gamble on the NFL preseason? That's up to you, but I don't recommend it.

Why is the preseason different? Besides the fact that regular players do not play throughout the whole game, other factors are: player intensity is low, coaches run experimental plays, and in general, because it does not count. Statistically this means that season trends, power ratings, team stats, and regular season historical data are useless.

How do other sport handicapper sites claim they make their successful preseason picks? They look, qualitatively I might add, at:
  • Coach philosophy
  • Strength of backup players
  • Coach pre-season intentions
  • Preseason historical trends
To me this is all a bunch of crapola. Excuse my language, but I am a scientist and clearly any person that has looked at NFL historical data can tell you that there is no correlation between preseason pick success and historical preseason data. Moreover, how can you measure or build a system based on coach philosophy, intentions, and preseason strength of backup players?

My NFL handicapper system waits for at least 3 weeks of regular season data to ensure a high quality model. That does not mean I will not be posting the results of my calculations throughout the first weeks, but I only start giving you and tracking my free picks after the 3rd week. Be patient, buy low, and wait for the opportunities. It's the true investor's way.


Anonymous said…
Just happened upon your blog. Wish I would have found it last year as I also fascinated by the NFL and statistical measures (particularly vs the point spread and fantasy). I look forward to your posts in 2008.