Week 15

NFL Point Spread picks:
Buffalo +6 Swimming against the current, it's not easy
Houston +1 Home underdog, same record, I like it.
NY Giants -4.5 My computer doesn't even know that Jason Campbell is not playing!
Indianapolis -11 I don't like hot streaks, but boy did they look good on Sunday!
Jacksonville +4 Tough pick, but I think JAC wins the game.

I started categorizing games into "green" and "yellow" since week 9. The purpose was to illustrate the success rate of the model for certain circumstances in which the game at hand fell into. Green implying a significantly good success rate, currently defined above 60% , and yellow an OK success rate currently defined at 55%-60%. Since then, the yellow picks have had a 8-4 ATS record and the green picks a 5-3 ATS. Overall, that is 13-7, 65%, huge right? Well, I am not convinced since it is only 5 weeks and anyone can get lucky.

This week, there wasn't a game that I could categorize as "green" even though the top one has a 61% confidence. Although I should not pay attention to wisdom of the crowds, I found at covers.com that 75% picked Cleveland to cover. I have been tracking these percentages and some weeks the crowd is right, like last week, but sometimes they are totally wrong. There is a scientific paper that 'proves' that betting against the line move is a profitable strategy giving about 54% within some time frame of games the statistician looked at. Meaning that if the line moves one way, you bet the other. Well, I am not changing my pick but I will not categorize it as green, Buffalo +6.

Here are the NFL week 15 computer picks:
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