Week 14

NFL Computerized Statistically robust picks:
Cleveland -3.5
Arizona +7
Philadelphia -3
Washington -3

Another week with huge and unexpected SUCCESS. Carolina and Pittsburgh were both picked last week with 'yellow' confidence. These "yellow picks" have covered the spread 4-0 in the past 2 weeks. Also the highest green pick, last week was San Diego, also covered for the 4th week in a row! Still, the model is not and probably will never be perfect and disappointed me with Cleveland's loss against Arizona.

This week I have some good picks for you as well. For those new readers, here' a quick explanation of the table below. The Estimate column is an estimate produced via a regression model of team rankings, off/def yards, and home field advantage. The team of record is the home team, which means negative favors the home team.

The success of these picks is cross-tabbed by 5 categories of the Vegas spread and 5 categories of the difference between the prediction and the Vegas spread. The Total Games column represents the number of games that have fallen into this category since 2002 and the percent is the success rate of the model for this cross-tab. For example, the MIN @ SF game falls into the "vegas spread is more than 6 points for visiting team" and "estimate is favoring visiting team more than 6 points than the spread" and this category has had 3 games, 2 of which have been predicted correctly (hence 67%).

I have not chosen Minnesota or Indi since total games (sample size) is very small. Here are the NFL Picks of the Week 14:
<%image(20071205-NFL2007_week14b.jpg|625|410|NFL Week 14 Point Spread Picks)%>