San Diego @ Indianapolis Divisional Playoff Pick

The spread has shifted 2.5 points for the Colts since I wrote the predictions and picks for this week on my previous post. Bodog has the Colts winning by -10.5. I ran my model again to see if the increase in the point spread would increase the percentage of wins significantly. It did increase the percentage from 56% to 58%, that is, when the home team is favorite by more than 9 points and my prediction is lower than the spread by 4-6 points is have gotten a 58% ATS.

Now there is a catch, injuries are not taken into account. Since I only take into account team statistics, if a player is injured, there is currently no way to account for that. I argue that if a bench player or a player not selected for the Pro Bowl is injured, the pick is still valid. On the other hand, if a player like Antonio Gates (leader in receiving yards for San Diego) is injured the model should be ignored. So, although I like San Diego covering a spread of +10.5, if Gates does not play which is still a game-time decision but likely not to play, I would ignore this game and not place a bet.