Week 16

NFL Point Spread Picks:
Tampa Bay -6 - San Francisco is weak and inexperienced
Philadelphia +3.5 - Going against ESPN who chose NO to cover
Denver +9 - I wouldn't bet on this one, but it is what came out
Indianapolis -7 - Indianapolis knows what to do before entering the playoff, gain momentum.

Last week the model did not perform well going 2-3 ATS on the 5 yellow picks posted. Overall, the record is now at 58% for yellow picks and 60% for green picks since I started coloring favorite picks on week 9. This week I have built a more robust model I will use to verify the current model's picks. I have tested it and it does as well as the current pick and when both pick the same team, we get a 2% improvement when predicting games from 2000-2007, going to 55% for all games.

The purpose of statistically trying to predict games should be to find opportunities and not to try to predict ALL games successfully. I have found situations in which 30 and 40 games have been predicted correctly with more than 70%.

This week we have one pick above 60% and 3 yellow ones. I have excluded the Minnesota game since Collins has only played 2 games and the data used includes games where Jason Campbell played. Good luck everyone!

NFL Picks Week 16
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