Week 9

Quick picks:
Seattle +1
Houston +3
Baltimore +9.5

I ran my model for this week, compared its success to this year and previous seasons, and automatically created picks accordingly. The system is based on which situations is the model predicting correctly. For example, when the Vegas spread is favoring the home team by 3 to 6 points but my model predicts the visiting team to win by more than 6, the visiting team ends up covering the spread 75% of the time. This week we have one such situation, Houston at Oakland.

If you have been reading my blog, you will notice that I added a new dimension to measuring the effectiveness of the model. Before, I was defining 'situations' as intervals of points of the difference between my spread and the Vegas line. Now, I consider not just this difference, but what was the value of the Vegas line at such difference. You can visualize it as a 3-way cross-tab. I found some situations with 90% from 2003-2007, although sample sizes were as big as 10. I did find more than 75 games that fit into situations with more than 65%. I will not display all the results since it would take up pages, but I will give you this week's computer generated NFL point spreads and picks. Beware, this week's picks are all visiting teams something to look into closer. Also, I am currently figuring out a method to better measure trends or "momentum" if it exists. Good luck!