Week 13
Quick Picks:
Cleveland +1
San Diego -5
Pittsburgh -8.5
Last week was a HUGE SUCCESS! Overall, the statistical model had a 67% success rate and although my purpose is to select games with higher chance of success, it is still good to know that the model performed well overall. Specifically, the games that the model selected to have high confidence also performed well. Both yellow picks (mid-high confidence), last week's were Green Bay and Indianapolis, covered as predicted. Last week's highest confidence pick (New Orleans) covered by a wide margin.
The only disappointment was the OAK @ KC game which (lesson learned) should have not been predicted because of injuries. The technique I use weighs recent games heavier, but games dating back to last season are still considered. During that time, KC ran with Larry Johnson and Oakland did not use Culpepper. Since there is currently no way for me to account for injuries, from now on when a team has a key player missing, I will not include that game in one of my confidence games.
NFL week 13 point spreads seem rather harder to predict or let's say I feel a bit less confident than last week. Feelings set aside, there are 4 games that the computer picks with mid-high to high confidence. Below is the usual table with the Vegas spreads, computer point spread predictions, NFL picks, and percent confidence. If you Read More, we delve into the statistical details and graphs for each of these 4 matchups.
<%image(20071127-NFL2007_week13.jpg|524|478|NFL Week 13 Picks)%>
Cleveland +1
San Diego -5
Pittsburgh -8.5
Last week was a HUGE SUCCESS! Overall, the statistical model had a 67% success rate and although my purpose is to select games with higher chance of success, it is still good to know that the model performed well overall. Specifically, the games that the model selected to have high confidence also performed well. Both yellow picks (mid-high confidence), last week's were Green Bay and Indianapolis, covered as predicted. Last week's highest confidence pick (New Orleans) covered by a wide margin.
The only disappointment was the OAK @ KC game which (lesson learned) should have not been predicted because of injuries. The technique I use weighs recent games heavier, but games dating back to last season are still considered. During that time, KC ran with Larry Johnson and Oakland did not use Culpepper. Since there is currently no way for me to account for injuries, from now on when a team has a key player missing, I will not include that game in one of my confidence games.
NFL week 13 point spreads seem rather harder to predict or let's say I feel a bit less confident than last week. Feelings set aside, there are 4 games that the computer picks with mid-high to high confidence. Below is the usual table with the Vegas spreads, computer point spread predictions, NFL picks, and percent confidence. If you Read More, we delve into the statistical details and graphs for each of these 4 matchups.
<%image(20071127-NFL2007_week13.jpg|524|478|NFL Week 13 Picks)%>
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