Week 10

Quick NFL Picks:
Dallas -1.5
Buffalo -3

My computer admits last week picks were brutal, she told me. But she did tell me that her most confident game was right on the nose. Houston indeed covered the spread. Brutality came with the other 2 medium confidence games. Although the Cleveland/Seattle game came down to the wire, there is no excuse. The question is, should we just pay attention to the 'green' games? Well, I wouldn't go that far, just yet. The good news is that in this NFL week 10, the model produced 2 high ('green') confident games. Is it Minnesota/Green Bay, Indianapolis/San Diego, or Chicago/Oakland. If I were to pick with my pure gut feeling, these are the games I would choose and would pick all visiting teams in those 3 games. The green games of the week are: Dallas @ NY Giants and Buffalo @ Miami. We will look at more detailed stats for these two games in the next post, but for this one, we'll stick to the picks and predictions.

Below you will find the table with the picks and the new confidence column I described in my previous post. I couldn't believe my eyes, it predicts the Cowboys to beat the Giants by about 6 points and that they will cover the spread with 79% confidence! OMG. I have also included a column of total games from 2002-2007 that fall into a similar category as the these games. This column should be used as a gauge on the sample size (the smaller, the less reliable the confidence is). What is a good sample size? That is something I just thought about and for a categorical problem like we have here, usually more than 5% in each category is considered reliable. In our case, 5% of all games from 2002-2007 is actually about 60, so we are below reliableness. I will modify categories in order to obtain bigger samples in each(next week). For now, let's look at the numbers:


I would like to see the defensive/offensive stats, the spread history, and last 5 game performance for the two so call high confident games. By inspection, I like these picks. Buffalo has been very good to my computer. Every time she has predicted Buffalo, they have come through, oh and yes they are playing Miami. Dallas is playing unbelievably well and Vegas is still doubting them. Watching them destroy Philadelphia last week showed me that they are not too far up there with New England and Indianapolis.

Notice there are 2 games with confidence higher than 60% but less than 65% and those are:
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Minnesota comes as no surprise and most lines are starting to move because of gamblers' preference towards the Vikings. The Cleveland @ Pittsburgh game I am less comfortable with after seeing last week's domination. We will have to look into dig deeper in the stats for each of these 4 games in my next post. Stay tuned!