Week 8

Quick picks:
Tennessee -7.5
Buffalo +3
Green Bay +3
Jacksonville +4

For example, when the difference between the prediction and the Vegas spread is between -5 and -3 points (home team preferred), picking the home team has been correct 9 of 12 times (75%). One could argue that when the difference is between -1 and 0, picking the home team yields only 16% so picking the visiting team would yield 84%. I will not highlight games which difference fall in this bucket.


Now let's take a look at these week's computer generated picks and their difference against this week's Vegas spread. Unfortunately, for this week there is only one game (Oak @ Ten) that falls in one of the 'good' categories, two (GB @ Den, Buf @ NYJ) that are very close to these categories, and one that is a huge outlier (Jac @ TB) which should be investigated further.


Let's look at stats for each of these 4 games:

Oakland @ Tennessee
When I initially saw the line I thought that it was an easy pick for Oakland. I thought that Tennessee would be an underdog or slight favorite. Apparently, last year's data is dragging Oakland to the mud. Although my model shows high confidence, 6 weeks of running this still does not give me a personal confidence for this pick. But I won't back down from my regression friend. Tennessee -7.5.


Oakland is clearly struggling in passing and rushing yards against opponents in the past 5 games. Averaging about 40 yards less in both categories. Tennessee on the other hand is rushing about 10 yards and passing above 60 yards more than its opponents in the past 5 games.


On average Tennessee is slightly doing better against the spread by averaging almost 6 points above while Oakland 4. Notice also that Oakland has been below the spread by about 4 points in the past two games.

Buffalo @ NY Jets and Green Bay @ Denver
These games have equal spread and equal prediction. Although both if these game fall into an undesired category by the model, they are still very close to the 1-2 bucket(which has picked 67% correctly). Both Green Bay and Buffalo are playing well and are still bringing doubt from bettors. So let's look at how they have performed recently.

The following graph shows the difference in the Vegas point spread and the actual result along with the Vegas line. Notice that the last game these two teams played (9/30/2007) although New York was a favorite, Buffalo covered the spread by 6 points. Last year New York was also favorite and this time Buffalo covered by more than 20 points. The model's pick plus this graph is enough for me to conclude Buffalo +3.


Look at the following two graphs. Green Bay clearly kicking ass in the yards department. Also notice Denver's struggles covering the spread, although they are still favorites in this game. I say no way. Green Bay +3.