My first observations was that stronger teams (NEW ENGLAND, SAN DIEGO, INDIANAPOLIS) fare better against the spread than weaker teams (TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS, OAKLAND). Secondly, I cannot find any pattern in terms of ups and downs. I was looking to find reasons for peaks and valleys, but there is not enough information here for me to reach a conclusion. For example, why was Atlanta so high last year? Jacksonville has had two straight low season, what does that say about this year?
When I evaluated this question in this 2007 article, I argued that the best places to find information about the results of teams is in the media. Over-hyped teams or under-achievers might be the ones to look for and bet accordingly.
So, who are my gut feeling 2010 teams that will err more on one side? (this is just a guess)
- Chicago, underrated
- Carolina, underrated
- New England, underrated
- Philadelphia, overrated
- Oakland, overrated