tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85802278448811238742024-02-20T00:42:26.254-06:00Statistics Beats the NFL Point SpreadA statistician on a mission to find inefficiency in the Vegas NFL point spread. Readers get NFL spread picks, weekly forecasts, and analysis.Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.comBlogger375125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-41159866806789178612024-02-09T14:12:00.005-06:002024-02-09T14:18:59.790-06:00NFLpickles' Official Super Bowl 58 Pick<img alt="" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhvMpA-DZwTPJbiWpLTcUR390YeTZ5-JlMCdk5OWzdmJSXRWVmPLGWeAuJsWnXru4d9rQFHFMWmYdCpi08p-Cxb9QNojfDY932yXGTsjJPyKAOODfJiKvJoAHpf2VSTtUgo_ss_wUeb3zv2a8YWppghOoe6SIRBorl_WpNYKXE197_KSoTLlaIuio4RIoji=w734-h412" width="734" />
<b>1. Patrick Mahomes: The New GOAT</b>
We always like being on the side of the better QB. Mahomes, often seen embracing his faith in public, has ascended to the top of the NFL quarterback hierarchy. His performance, leadership, and resilience under pressure have solidified his status. Against a relatively untested Brock Purdy, Mahomes' experience and skill set him apart as the decisive factor in this championship bout.<div><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">
<b>2. Chiefs' Defensive Mastery</b>
Facing the 49ers, the Chiefs' defense, ranked second in the league, is poised to apply pressure that Purdy hasn't faced before. This formidable defense will stop the run as they did in Baltimore, force Purdy to pass, and the rest is history. Chiefs pick 6! haha.</span></div><div><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">
<b>3. Unmatched Experience and Cohesion</b>
Experience in the Super Bowl cannot be overstated, and the Chiefs' roster boasts an overwhelming advantage. With key players like Travis Kelce, Mahomes, and Chris Jones bringing a wealth of playoff and Super Bowl appearances, their familiarity with the grand stage's intensity is unparalleled.</span></div><div><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">
<b>4. Superior Strategy </b>
The Chiefs’ Andy Reid sometimes looks like an analytical machine that picks the optimal strategy at every point in the game. On the other side, you have a coach that has lost twice in the Super Bowl including being the OC of the largest comeback in Super Bowl history (run the ball!). This game will be tight, but Reid figures out the edge.</span></div><div><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">
<b>Conclusion: Why the Chiefs Will Win</b>
Despite the 49ers' formidable roster, the Chiefs' blend of seasoned leadership, strategic prowess, and the unparalleled talent of Mahomes tips the scales in their favor. In a game where experience, mental toughness, and proven championship mettle are crucial, Kansas City stands out as the team most equipped to rise to the occasion.</span></div><div><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;">
Super Bowl 58 promises to be a clash of titans, but with all factors considered including advanced analytics which do no point to Chiefs winning,, NFLpickles sees the Kansas City Chiefs capturing their third Lombardi Trophy in five years, a testament to their enduring excellence and the transcendent talent of Patrick Mahomes.</span></div><div><br /></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-19208225841969109542024-02-06T08:02:00.003-06:002024-02-06T08:02:35.524-06:00Super Bowl Champs and the DVOA Tale<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/rkfn-production-media/%2Fuser/16819/post/363c880e-ed38-4d64-b1ab-699de4388f37/thumbnail/3cbb9b41-e171-4be1-87c9-7229de83e422" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="800" height="427" src="https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/rkfn-production-media/%2Fuser/16819/post/363c880e-ed38-4d64-b1ab-699de4388f37/thumbnail/3cbb9b41-e171-4be1-87c9-7229de83e422" width="588" /></a></div><p>As we gear up for Super Bowl 53, the air is thick with anticipation. On one side, we have the San Francisco 49ers, boasting an offense DVOA of 32% and a defense DVOA 10% above average. On the other, the Kansas City Chiefs, with a 15% offense DVOA and a defense that's 5% above average. It's the classic offense versus defense showdown, but is it really that simple?</p><p><b>The Past is Prologue: A Look Back</b></p><p>In my previous analyses, the mantra "defense wins championships" was turned on its head. Let's take a stroll down memory lane:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>2019 Chiefs vs 49ers: The Chiefs' superior offense (22.7% DVOA) trumped the 49ers' defense.</li><li>2020 Buccaneers: Similar offense DVOA to their opponents, but a superior defense and the Tom Brady factor played a key role.</li><li>2021 Rams: Both a better offense and defense than the Bengals.</li><li>Last Year: The Chiefs, again with a better offense, overcame the Eagles.</li></ul><p></p><p>From 2010-2018, however, the trend flipped: Super Bowls were won by teams with lesser offenses. But was it the defense or something else? Cases like the 2015 Broncos and 2013 Seahawks suggest a dominant defense can indeed carve a path to victory.</p><p><b>The Present Scenario</b></p><p>This year's matchup paints a complex picture. The 49ers' offense is statistically superior, reminiscent of the 1998 Broncos, who had the second-highest offense DVOA to win a Super Bowl. Yet, the Chiefs are not far behind, especially when considering recent performance.</p><p><b>The DVOA Dance: Offense vs. Defense</b></p><p>Since 1989, teams with superior offenses have won 18 of 35 Super Bowls. While not a definitive trend, it's telling. Interestingly, the team with both a lesser offense and defense has clinched victory 5 times, the last being the 2014 Patriots. On the flip side, teams that dominated both offense and defense won 8 times, with the Rams in 2021 being the most recent.</p><p><b>The X-Factor: Momentum and Strategy</b></p><p>While DVOA offers a numerical landscape, it doesn't account for intangibles like momentum or strategic genius. The Chiefs' recent form and tactical adaptability, helmed by Andy Reid and spearheaded by Patrick Mahomes, cannot be ignored. Their offense, though lower in DVOA, is hardly a weak link, and their defense has shown up when it mattered most.</p><p><b>The Case for the 49ers</b></p><p>San Francisco's superior DVOA on both sides of the ball is hard to overlook. A win for them would not just be a statistical validation but also a testament to their balanced prowess throughout the season.</p><p><b>The Chiefs' Counterargument</b></p><p>But history has shown us that exceptional individual talent and timely strategy often defy statistics. Mahomes' brilliance, akin to Brady's in the past, adds a layer of unpredictability that raw numbers can't capture.</p><p><b>Conclusion: A Clash of Titans</b></p><p>As we approach the big game, the question looms: Will it be the 49ers' balanced excellence or the Chiefs' dynamic playmaking that prevails? While statistics lean one way, the unpredictable nature of football, combined with Mahomes' rising legacy, makes this a tantalizingly close call.</p><p>Who will lift the Lombardi Trophy? I will be making my choice later on during the week. </p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-31315175820693692552024-01-25T14:36:00.002-06:002024-01-25T14:36:23.181-06:00NFL Picks - Conference Championship<p>Wow, what a divisional playoff week it was last week. Our top 2 picks hit big time with Baltimore easily covering a 9.5 and the Chiefs winning straight up at +135, parlay those and you know what I’m talking about. Let’s now get into the conference games.</p><p><b>Kansas City +3.5</b></p><p>Kansas City is getting a modest +3.5 points, but my array of machine learning algorithms is shouting "Baltimore domination" with a double-digit victory. While most are firmly in the Ravens' camp, one outlier algorithm, which has been a bit of a disappointment throughout the year, insists on a Chiefs win. The Prediction Tracker, overseeing a whopping 70-plus automated predictors, reveals that 58% of them are leaning towards a Baltimore cover.</p><p>The Chiefs, however, are nursing some defensive wounds. Their run defense faltered against the Bills in the last game, ranking a dismal 27th in the league by DVOA standards. Despite facing a Bills team with a third or fourth-string linebacker and numerous backup defensive players, the Chiefs' offense failed to breach the 40-point mark. On the flip side, the Ravens' defense held strong against the Texans, denying them a single touchdown and maintaining top-tier performance all season. DVOA statistics crown them as the #1 defense against the pass and #7 against the run, allowing only two games with over 30 points scored against them this year.</p><p>For those who indulge in conspiracy theories, the Super Bowl logo, decked out in the 49ers and Ravens colors, raises eyebrows. This trend has continued for the past two years, fueling speculation about the powers that are influencing the outcome.</p><p>So, why am I putting my money on the Chiefs against the Ravens? Firstly, I confess to being a bandwagon Chiefs fan; this is purely an emotional bet, and I'll be cautious with my stake. Secondly, the combination of Mahomes and Reid, experienced winners in this high-stakes environment, makes the Chiefs a formidable underdog. Thirdly, there's a whimsical conspiracy theory suggesting that for Super Bowl ratings to soar, Taylor Swift needs to grace the stage, perhaps even teaming up with Usher for a halftime extravaganza!</p><p>In summary, all signs point to a Baltimore cover, with the majority of bets and money favoring the Ravens. Yet, here I am, swayed by the underdog allure, a dash of conspiracy intrigue, and the Mahomes factor. </p><p><b>Detroit +7</b></p><p>Let's dive into the Lions' defensive prowess, ranking #1 against the run but showing vulnerability against the pass. Their ability to stifle the #2 offense in the Packers, shutting down the run, raises expectations. If they replicate this against the 49ers, the onus falls on Purdy to connect with Kittle or Ayuk downfield. Despite Deebo nursing a shoulder injury, Jerry Rice's declaration that he'll play adds pressure – a game of grit or labels.</p><p>Switching gears to offense, the Lions claim the #5 spot through the air, but the 49ers soar at #1 with an impressive 58% DVOA. The numbers seem inflated, but it sets up a clash between two potent passing offenses. The dilemma: who won't falter, Purdy or Goff? A tough call, but my money's on the veteran. Both teams boast formidable ground attacks.</p><p>Analyzing DVOA differences, SF emerges as the superior team overall. Yet, the Lions, ranking top 5 in almost all offensive and defensive categories, promise a fierce battle. With a 7-point spread, it's intriguing; especially when comparing it to the KC vs. BAL game, where numbers heavily favor the Ravens, yet the spread is a mere 3.5 points. It's a puzzle. While the 49ers might secure the win, we question whether 7 points is too generous for two talented teams locked in a competitive showdown on both sides of the ball.</p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-3396183377158307002024-01-11T01:21:00.004-06:002024-01-11T01:21:44.940-06:00NFL Wild Card Picks Against the Spread<p><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">In this week's Wild Card playoff matchups, we delve into six games where potential opportunities abound. This marks the fourth year of the NFL's 17-game, 18-week format. The 7th seeds have yet to secure a victory, standing at 0-6 during this period. Join us as we analyze each game, concluding with insights into the matchups where confidence in predictions is at its peak.</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-d4cdfc19-7fff-e26d-7ad1-86e68649dbfb"><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Cleveland @ Houston 2.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Cleveland enters the matchup against Houston as a 2.5-point favorite, with several key factors influencing the game. Houston's offensive struggles without Tank Dell and concerns about Joe Flacco's interceptions are countered by the playoff experience and intensity he brings to the Browns. Here's a breakdown of the key considerations:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Tank Dell Impact</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Houston's offense has suffered in Dell's absence, especially in the passing game. They are too single threaded with Nico Collins.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Flacco's Playoff Record</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Joe Flacco boasts an impressive 5-0 Wild Card record and an 11-4 ATS record.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Rookie QBs in Playoffs</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Historical data suggests quarterbacks in their first postseason appearance tend to struggle, with a 39% ATS success rate since 2002.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Strength of Schedule (SOS)</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Cleveland faces a tougher SOS compared to Houston.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Concerns about Flacco</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Despite worries about interceptions and Browns' road performance, the playoff intensity is expected to favor the veteran QB.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">2nd visit concerns</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: The Houston defense has seen Flacco this year but the Browns haven’t seen CJ Stroud.</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pick: Cleveland -2.5</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Miami @ Kansas City -4.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">In a game where the Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins with a 4.5-point favor, several key factors come into play for handicapping. The rematch scenario, adverse weather conditions in KC, and missing defensive pieces for the Dolphins are crucial elements to consider. Here's a concise breakdown:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Adverse Weather Conditions</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Anticipated snow, wind, and a windchill of -10 degrees in Kansas City could significantly impact the game.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Rematch Factor</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: In Frankfurt, KC dominated with a 21-0 lead at halftime, and the expectation is that their defense will replicate its strong performance.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Missing Defensive Piece</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Bradley Chubb's absence on the Dolphins' defense could prove detrimental against the Chiefs. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Impact of Weather on Injured Player</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Mostert returning from a serious injury in cold weather may pose challenges for the Dolphins.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Dolphins' Struggles on the Road</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">: Miami's poor record against teams over .500, coupled with the challenges of playing on the road and adverse weather, raises concerns.</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pick: Kansas City -4.5</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pittsburgh @ Buffalo -10</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The Buffalo Bills are favored by 10 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a windy Sunday morning. The absence of TJ Watt, the leader in NFL sacks, poses a significant challenge for the Steelers' defense, compounded by adverse weather conditions with winds exceeding 25mph. Despite the Bills' recent winning streak and the status of the 7th seed in the NFL, historical trends and Tomlin's performance as an underdog suggest a closer contest. Here's a breakdown:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Weather Concerns: With winds exceeding 25mph, weather conditions leads to a run-heavy game.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Strength of Schedule (SOS): The Steelers have faced a tougher SOS compared to the Bills.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Tomlin's ATS Record as an Underdog: Mike Tomlin has a strong ATS record of 55-33 when the Steelers are considered underdogs.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Historical Trends: The 7th seed has yet to secure a victory in the NFL, and double-digit favorites in the playoffs have an 11-4 record.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Bills' Winning Streak: Buffalo enters the game with momentum, having won the last five games.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Recent Historical Example: Last year, Miami went to Buffalo as a double-digit favorite and lost but only by 3 points.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Turnover Concerns: Since 2022, the Josh Allen has recorded 41 giveaways and 32 interceptions, among the highest in the NFL.</span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pick: Pittsburgh +10</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Green Bay @ Dallas -7.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The Dallas Cowboys are favored by 7.5 points against the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys' playoff struggles, particularly with a 5-12 record since 1996 and Dak Prescott's 1-5 playoff record, raise questions about their postseason performance. Jordan Love's contrasting performances and the Packers' potent passing offense, coupled with the added pressure on Mike McCarthy facing his former team, make the spread seem too high. While the Cowboys' defense and home field advantage are considerations, the factors favor a closer contest. Here's a breakdown:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pick: Green Bay +7.5</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">LA Rams @ Detroit -3</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">In the upcoming matchup, the focus is often on Sean McVay's knowledge of Jared Goff. Dan Campbell brings intensity and inspiration, but there's a conspiracy theory suggesting the NFL might not want the Lions in the playoffs for an extended period. The Lions are dealing with injuries, having lost LaPorta last week, while the Rams, coming off a bye week, essentially rested their starters. Cooper Kupp, who has established a playoff legacy, now confronts a below-average defense.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pick: LA Rams +3</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay 3</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Concluding the season with a 1-5 record, the Eagles find themselves at their lowest point in terms of performance. The Buccaneers, too, appear to be struggling, having lost to the Saints and failing to score a touchdown against the Panthers. Preferring Jalen Hurts over Baker Mayfield, the Eagles seem comparable to the team from seven weeks ago, with a belief in their superior talent compared to Tampa. With key players like Swift, Slay, and Smith expected to play and the team getting healthier, the pick is in favor of the Eagles.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Pick: Philadelphia -3</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The most confident picks for this week are:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">1. Kansas City -4.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">2. Green Bay +7.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">3. Philadelphia -3</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-71928463285864908292023-12-06T00:53:00.005-06:002023-12-06T00:53:58.043-06:00NFL Picks - Week 14There seem to be some good opportunities here in week 14 of the NFL. There are so many dominant teams, facing below average teams at less than a TD! That's crazy. Take Houston for example, why are they not at least a TD favorite? There are also interesting auto-fades that the models picked on: New England and Carolina. <div><br /></div><div>Week 14 Picks:</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>New Orleans</b> -5: Fade the Panthers, auto-pick.</li><li><b>Pittsburgh</b> -6: Fade the Patriots. Trubiski has a better QBR career than Pickett. </li><li><b>Detroit</b> -3: Buying Detroit low, Bears high. Plus they cover.</li><li><b>Houston</b> -5.5: What? The Jets haven't scored more than 13 points in the last 6 games.</li><li><b>Philadelphia</b> +3.5: Dallas strength of schedule has been easy. They have trouble with good teams. Plus, the sharps are on the Eagles.</li><li><b>Green Bay</b> -6.5: Huge DVOA differential. Packers with the much better QB. Offense wins games.</li></ul><div>For more details on each game, go to <a href="https://rokfin.com/NFLpickles">rokfin.com/NFLpickles</a></div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSdpIK6zCi_gAe2pVaD3cy02VwUCtq8IeLnq46Tk23jeOzCBCs4369bLsyZ7WhAt7LAvnNhQrF-oHtqoVaX7NRkGc8ulD_BGslCdtJhTWwD_vNNCkyKTsT4NAPtWPq_Wgx-z04B0Cv7Up2B_WwgrQQql_AvzchbZxLgLXBp9qJWItQSLOsDlIxr_c0Kw2r/s1580/nfl_spread_picks_2023wk14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1580" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSdpIK6zCi_gAe2pVaD3cy02VwUCtq8IeLnq46Tk23jeOzCBCs4369bLsyZ7WhAt7LAvnNhQrF-oHtqoVaX7NRkGc8ulD_BGslCdtJhTWwD_vNNCkyKTsT4NAPtWPq_Wgx-z04B0Cv7Up2B_WwgrQQql_AvzchbZxLgLXBp9qJWItQSLOsDlIxr_c0Kw2r/w589-h335/nfl_spread_picks_2023wk14.png" width="589" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-90830250541530453122023-11-21T17:39:00.001-06:002023-11-21T17:39:11.767-06:00NFL Picks - Week 12<p> 🦃 Thanksgiving picks:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Detroit -7.5</li><li>Washington +11</li></ul><div>Confident Picks</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Baltimore -3.5</li><li>Tennessee -3.5</li><li>Cleveland +2.5</li></ul><div>For more picks and analysis, go to the <a href="https://rokfin.com/nflpickles">NFL Pickles</a> Rokfin channel.</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/nflpickles" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_UVUGidZ94J-BluIzTWIJyQbW0S3phz4D9HLLc7ofUFBNEY_9woMc5oCwd-3baPNOBiwBQz5TjkVMlWR4hKaB8eq9wKPqVNH_Qnw0BrJP1QZaFNCSw1U3q6DHwLscEQcFnrE6KzLrHb49wOeCSg112SPFvn6fKOKOR0xxOx3EgWZr_RsBAa6QErdo_L1a/s320/nflpickles_2023wk12_thumbnail.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><p></p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-25363716992853575612023-11-16T01:49:00.004-06:002023-11-16T01:49:52.159-06:00NFL Picks - Week 11<divwhat 3-1="" 3="" 4="" a="" about.="" all="" and="" ats="" b="" barely="" bet="" bit="" by="" colts="" covered="" deebo="" didn="" difference.="" disappointed="" embarrassing.="" feel="" games="" go="" going="" good="" got="" great="" huge="" i="" in="" knowing="" last="" let="" lions="" looks="" make="" now="" pittsburgh="" points.="" pull="" row.="" s="" sf="" strides.="" t="" that="" the="" titans="" to="" trigger="" two="" was="" we="" week="" wins.="" with="" within=""></divwhat><div>What a great week last week was! 3-1 ATS, that Titans bet now looks embarrassing. Barely covered in all 3 wins. Pittsburgh, Colts, and Lions all within 3 points. A bit disappointed that I didn’t pull the trigger with SF knowing Deebo was going to make a huge difference. Week by week, we make strides. Let’s go two in a row. We got 4 games I feel good about.
<br /><br /></div><b>LA CHARGERS -3 </b><div>Just look at who the Chargers have beated and played. Their schedule has been much tougher and they hang around with the best. Now against Green Bay, the skill level will be noticeable to them.
Road Spot: I’m attractive to short road favorites. Not ideal it’s non-conference but this Chargers offense will put up points that Green Bay will not be able to keep up with. </div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><i>Allen's Playing</i>: Keenan Allen is the maestro of the Chargers' scoring symphony, and he's likely to hit the field on Sunday. His recent performance has been a key driver of the Chargers' offensive prowess. </li><li><i>Defensive Duel</i>: Neither team is flaunting an impenetrable defense, but beware the Mack-Bosa train – it might just roll into town reminiscent of the Bears game.
Herbert's Hype: In the battle of quarterbacks, it's not just a box; it's a whole checklist. Herbert is not just better; he's in a different stratosphere compared to Love. Check that box, Chargers fans. </li><li><i>DVOA Discrepancy</i>: DVOA speaks, and it's saying something fishy. A 20% point difference overall, yet only a 3-point spread? Something's off, and we're smelling value for the Chargers on the road.</li></ul><div>For the other 3 solid money making picks, visit my page at <a href="http://Rokfin.com/NFLpickles">Rokfin.com/NFLpickles</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/NFLpickles" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2WcEw3NLjVs12ASK1cjxTxVNRq8Rh3T8HEhCUIJ9bCqLHm4HCWi4Hveg9mSnaqIkpxn6LjYQ_ePmRa-tTJvnZyLiGlbcdvkJAxLpE1SdKK8d3wt7dKjeGJLpnVzYeNCNI6u98N3KabdritPbYbT5gppuCf5K2oZV1IzsyVqZgAtnP4autWDS4o7WdtrPc/w425-h239/nflpickles_2023wk11_thumbnail.jpeg" width="425" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-20201388508221185872023-11-09T15:02:00.005-06:002023-11-09T15:02:59.825-06:00NFL Picks - Week 10<p><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Last week was quite successful, with our picks hitting a solid 60% mark, going 3-2 ATS. Despite a near win with Houston, I'm confident in our methodology and models. We focused on teams with superior DVOA, a stronger passing offense compared to the defense they were up against, and the ability to defend against the run, preventing the opposing team from controlling the clock. Baltimore, the Colts, and Cleveland all met these criteria last week and came through. While KC performed admirably for us in Germany, the Patriots' victory over the Commanders was a surprise upset.</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-fe037c42-7fff-b216-7b2f-244f778e62c4"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">This week, we've identified four teams that fit this winning characteristic:</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">INDIANAPOLIS -1.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Here are the compelling reasons why the Colts are poised to cover the spread against the New England Patriots:</span></p><br /><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Indianapolis is favored by a narrow 1.5-point margin, indicating confidence in their performance.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">The Colts have consistently demonstrated their offensive prowess by scoring a minimum of 20 points in every game, showcasing their ability to put points on the board.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Jonathan Taylor, a key playmaker for the Colts, is poised for a standout performance. The Packers' weaker passing defense could create ample opportunities for Taylor to shine.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">Statistically, the Colts hold a significant 15% advantage in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), highlighting their superior overall performance.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">With an above-average run defense, the Colts possess the capability to limit the Patriots' ground game and control the tempo of the match.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; text-wrap: wrap; vertical-align: baseline;">In terms of passing offense, the Colts have the upper hand over the Patriots, whose aerial attack is notably less potent and lacks the same level of firepower.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">This combination of offensive consistency, favorable matchups, and statistical advantages positions the Colts as a strong contender to not only cover the spread but potentially secure a decisive victory against the New England Patriots. Go Colts!</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">For the 3 other picks, go to <a href="http://Rokfin.com/NFLpickles">Rokfin.com/NFLpickles</a></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/nflpickles" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCcBkNvdbDbamGre1sw1tjQA5KXOTrKQqLRV-t9vKU9-Gdjd3wihfynrYlK_eUyh31uPzXbrGLGXnkAC3rZraeRAMdi5NppojX88tvDqKhOl9OAWe7JXhzRP8ixtSpJcvLrrqOX2on_0iDt0RH5haFOvXkamE_hyf7l_gozz4amC1XrDzoL_NHnv9FTWmT/s320/nflpickles_2023wk10_thumbnail.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span><p></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-42774265943875746992023-10-19T14:57:00.001-05:002023-10-19T14:57:41.373-05:00NFL Picks - Week 7<p>Tampa Bay -2.5</p><p>Kansas City -5.5</p><p>In the previous week's matchups, most predictions were on point, with outcomes aligning closely with expectations. Notable blowouts came from Jacksonville and Detroit, and while the KC game required a bit of luck, it ultimately fell within the spread. The only outlier was the Eagles; their offense struggled, but the defense held its ground. There is no lesson here, I would bet the Eagles on that spot any time. Additionally, when a high-performing offense meets a formidable defense, as in the case of SF against Cleveland, caution is advised, especially when considering that Cleveland boasted the 2nd-ranked pass DVOA prior to the game.</p><p><b>Tampa Bay -2.5</b></p><p>In this matchup between the Falcons and the Buccaneers, the Bucs hold a clear advantage. Analyzing the DVOA for passing offense and the opponent's passing defense, we see a significant disparity. The Falcons have a 26% below-average passing defense, while the Bucs boast a passing offense that's 14% above average. Furthermore, the Falcons' passing offense, led by Ridder, has shown inconsistency with interceptions piling up. On the defensive front, Tampa Bay is the superior unit, with the ability to cover by less than a field goal. This, coupled with the Bucs' home advantage, makes them a strong pick to cover the 2.5-point spread. </p><p><b>Kansas City -5.5</b></p><p>In this Chargers vs Chiefs matchup, we have a contrast of short rest for the Chargers against the Chiefs' extended break. Rain is also expected to be a factor. Historically, Herbert keeps games against the Chiefs tight and tends to cover. Keep an eye out for Frank Clark's potential return and the addition of Mecole Hardman could be what the Chiefs offense needs to be more explosive. The pivotal analytical point is the Chiefs' impressive 36% above-average passing offense facing off against the Chargers' 11% below-average passing defense. This could be a high-scoring affair with the Chiefs holding a significant advantage in the passing game.</p><p><b>SNF</b></p><p>This week, we continue the hitting on road team favorite by less than or equal to a TD. Those are juicy and historically hit more than miss. Plus this week, their trend is backed up by analysis as you'll see later. Miami should be a pick based on DVOA passing offense of 60% against the Eagles pass D which surprisingly is below average. There are so many injuries on both sides (Lane Johnson, Xavier Brooks, etc.) that it makes this great game a flip of a coin. Given it's on SNF, if you force me, I go with the stronger Dolphins passing offense.</p><p><b>MNF</b></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-d749e628-7fff-e8dc-f1af-3e501efb1398"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The Packers, rejuvenated after a bye week, are benefiting from an improved injury situation. The most glaring contrast lies in... for this and two other solid picks, visit <a href="http://rokfin.com/NFLpickles">rokfin.com/NFLpickles</a></span></span></p><p><span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://rokfin.com/nflpickles" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiT2gmGCEI1T3OW6qSIRLAYe1KVhEKc590CtacysKJzUfj-8p5KPGBfAO2s--Wm1vrhlPbKin6DiHklWbTlIgMHhIyrg9i2RSbXCBDBd8woK0qPxvMWiXM49hCu_QkZv0OpG1rdlw1RrWgDu2rXCxmwxAYyJl9VKk4oPu5qnND8Nt2vdQU2BJmFdBwJA3jl" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div><br /></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-68393311465893752932023-10-10T17:05:00.006-05:002023-10-10T17:08:03.401-05:00NFL Picks - Week 6 + Data-Driven UpdateGreetings, NFL enthusiasts! <div>You may have noticed a temporary pause in our regular machine learning picks, and I wanted to take a moment to explain why. It has become evident that relying on last year's data during the first weeks can lead us to wrong decisions. It's better to forego machine learning models altogether in the beginning weeks than to base our decisions on potentially inaccurate information. So that’s why I haven’t even posted the machine learning picks. </div><div><br /></div><div>We're currently hard at work refining our models, and a key focus has been on integrating the latest metrics, with a special emphasis on DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). This metric has long been a linchpin in our decision-making process, particularly when it comes to high-stakes events like the Super Bowl. While it's not infallible, it has demonstrated its reliability in specific scenarios. </div><div><br /></div><div>One of the most intriguing observations we've made over the years is the pivotal role of offense. When measured against the opposing team's pass or run defense, opportunities start to surface. For example, consider San Francisco this week with a dominant offense, paired with a defense that outperforms its counterpart, and the spread is less than a touchdown. In situations like this, where the offense outshines its rival by a staggering 50%, while the defense maintains a 15% edge, the potential for a decisive victory is palpable. </div><div><br /></div><div>Detroit is another example. Despite boasting a 35% overall superiority, the spread stands at a mere 3 points. This discrepancy underscores the hidden potential that lies within the matchups. </div><div><br /></div><div>As we eagerly await updates on Kelce's injury status for the Kansas City game, it's clear that the Chiefs have the potential for a high-scoring affair, especially against a defense that trails 35% behind the average.
The addition of Jacksonville into the mix introduces an exciting new dimension to our models. </div><div><br /></div><div>This week is definitely chalky but I do expect to find those hidden treasures in future weeks for the underdogs. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis8ynMClKF4L4W3xAqmjF0O9ABVVKhFPXLy8II6BEiC_LpywSR4PlUujV8LRy1qhIqyZM6ZfcDz3WRXDdDbu7tZ0goKPsASwgiZkzNJm6c-rSkra4cRGPiv9DAccL7LYtbT3Vbyn-5dsAUWrig33vtjTtdrX23ap0P1e72ZRObys13HnL-_al5DsZD5XLf/s5120/nflpickles_2023wk06_thumbnail.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis8ynMClKF4L4W3xAqmjF0O9ABVVKhFPXLy8II6BEiC_LpywSR4PlUujV8LRy1qhIqyZM6ZfcDz3WRXDdDbu7tZ0goKPsASwgiZkzNJm6c-rSkra4cRGPiv9DAccL7LYtbT3Vbyn-5dsAUWrig33vtjTtdrX23ap0P1e72ZRObys13HnL-_al5DsZD5XLf/s320/nflpickles_2023wk06_thumbnail.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></div><div>Week 6 Picks: </div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>SF -5 </li><li>JAC -4 </li><li>DET -3 </li><li>KC -10.5
</li></ul><br /><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvC2vUm7VgvyG7n5MRsGx0z-Ch2MqmGqtZi71l2rytL19K3uFc9mJTyAjMvoVGDsTYIGhxSlyZbUckz7Okiwe_Fjx5kDauNikKH7fZMkvzozRscrIz4MkDoOYT78pmxOosLtImN2rljBqTWlortkgUIsw0o1MJcjetgki8Y1I0MuP6JoPkc2naQpLMgvhk/s1694/nfl_spread_picks_2023wk06.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="1694" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvC2vUm7VgvyG7n5MRsGx0z-Ch2MqmGqtZi71l2rytL19K3uFc9mJTyAjMvoVGDsTYIGhxSlyZbUckz7Okiwe_Fjx5kDauNikKH7fZMkvzozRscrIz4MkDoOYT78pmxOosLtImN2rljBqTWlortkgUIsw0o1MJcjetgki8Y1I0MuP6JoPkc2naQpLMgvhk/w657-h355/nfl_spread_picks_2023wk06.png" width="657" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-38946724964722245192023-02-12T13:32:00.008-06:002023-02-12T13:32:59.036-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks: Super Bowl 57<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQI5koDWx2QZI--Bv1Fdjb4ksSeCDHA8w5Qjap5KMSOSJ0HppfpJDt5FdNq3jd1xw6zy7RRnimSQgfjUCA4Ksw66sKRr5RLWR2wftAANJJmHhqX1rZW3KH6hlgNBPtHhCNwlYr0bTIUbVVh444DUtQ09HJUE1gE3uiL3FZvYMY_zLjfEPxl_tNLemVgg/s1400/nflpickles_2022wk22_superbowl_thumbnail.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1400" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQI5koDWx2QZI--Bv1Fdjb4ksSeCDHA8w5Qjap5KMSOSJ0HppfpJDt5FdNq3jd1xw6zy7RRnimSQgfjUCA4Ksw66sKRr5RLWR2wftAANJJmHhqX1rZW3KH6hlgNBPtHhCNwlYr0bTIUbVVh444DUtQ09HJUE1gE3uiL3FZvYMY_zLjfEPxl_tNLemVgg/w500-h280/nflpickles_2022wk22_superbowl_thumbnail.png" width="500" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">
Let’s start with my personal record picking Super Bowl ATS winners in the last 16 years. I’m 14-2 and last year’s half point cost me my second loss. Only if the extra point would’ve gone in or if OBJ would’ve played the second half… This year has been a bit rough. Too many weeks breaking even or losing and only one week where we cleaned up. The Super Bowl is different, we have more time to prepare and think it through. </span><p></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-e2cf35d7-7fff-40e6-eb4a-65578709b51d"><br /><h2 style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Kansas City +1.5</span></h2><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The biggest variable is Mahomes high ankle sprain and if he’ll be able to survive the whole game without limping. Playing against the outlier #1 team in sacks who hurt two QBs in the last game, the likelihood of him getting injured increases significantly. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Assuming he can play and run around for the whole game, even if it’s at 75%, here’s my analysis. Otherwise, if he gets injured, it’s over just like the 49ers.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offense and Defense</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Both teams scored an average of 27.8 points per game and are ranked 1st (KC) and 3rd (PHI) in the league. The Eagles did it mostly on the ground and the Chiefs with the pass. The Chiefs lead the league in passing DVOA while the Eagles lead the league in running. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The biggest matchup is KC’s #1 passing offense against the #1 passing defense. The Chiefs could decide to build a bigger impacting ground game for this game as the Eagles rushing defense is below average. Feed Pacheco and McKinnon and this #9 rushing offense could find success.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Eagles on the other hand will be able to move the chains on the ground. Only with good preparation will KC be able to stop the run game. Now a lot of the Eagles run game comes from Hurts and he will be facing the 2nd best pass rush in the league. The Eagles have great wide receivers that can exploit the Chiefs secondary if Hurts has enough time to throw the ball. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The advantage of the passing game is a security blanket if the team is down. In that case, there’s an advantage for KC. On the other hand, if KC can’t find receivers or are getting rushed, then we’re back in 2019 when the Bucs stopped Mahomes by running through the offensive line. This year, the Chiefs were 5th in the league in allowing the least sacks while the Eagles were 21st. That could be trouble for the Eagles and a potential relief of stopping the mad rush of the Eagles.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Strength of Schedule</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It is important to note that the Eagles had one of the easiest schedules in the league. It was predicted at the beginning of the season and after the season they remained with one of the lowest strength of schedule in the league. The Chiefs were predicted to have the 2nd toughest schedule and finished 8th. They have also had a much tougher run for the playoffs after beating the Jaguars and the Bengals, than the Giants and a team with a 5th string QB.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Quarterbacks</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The quarterback being the most important position, I’m a fan of backing the team with the better QB. But who’s better, Mahomes or Hurts? Ok, that shouldn’t be a question. Mahomes numbers for his first 5 five years in the league are breaking all kinds of records. Mahomes needs this ring so the conversation about him being the potential new goat (long way to go though) solidifies. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Hurts time will come, especially with that receiving squad, but they might need another shot at it. His passing yards aren’t impressive. He threw for 3700 yards, 22 TD and 6 INT, rarely throwing over 300 and a few times under 200. Experience counts and there’s a chance he makes too many mistakes like last year when they lost against the Bucs, they were down 31-0 at some point and he threw 2 INTs.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Coaches</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Both great coaches with different styles. Syrianni is more aggressive and risk taking while Reid game plans to keep the score close and end it when needed. This is Syrianni’s 3rd game in the playoffs as a head coach, he’s 2-1. Reid is 20-16 in the playoffs and 10 of those wins with the Chiefs. His trademark is preparation and has a ridiculous 28-4 record after a bye week.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Machine Learning Models</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I understand that it is a bit of black box even for me. I know the tools being used and ingredients to make the outputs, but why precisely do my models like the Chiefs over the Eagles is hard to tell. Could be that the differences in some offense and defense metrics benefit the Chiefs more than the Eagles. It could also be because they beat harder teams. Could also be that the differences in point (line), after an outlier effect minimization, also benefits the Chiefs. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Whatever the reason, all my models point at the Chiefs and some have them winning by 10! On a weighted average, as the output below shows, I predict they win anywhere between 3 and 7 points.</span></p><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-44566941073604905332023-01-27T00:57:00.002-06:002023-01-27T00:57:55.925-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks: Conference Championship<p> <span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-weight: 700; white-space: pre-wrap;">Final Say</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-02f13537-7fff-2cdc-bc1e-017d57fc1577"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Divisional playoffs have arrived and we’re down to 4 teams. Each of the games' geeky stat comparison can be found here for the </span><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/12123/NFC-Conference-Game--Early-Look" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">NFC</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> and the </span><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/12124/AFC-Conference-Game--Early-Look" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration-skip-ink: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">AFC</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Divisional Games.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">First let me review last week. The Good: SF narrative with Prescott’s fall was accurate. CIN was money but chickened out bc of the offensive line. Should’ve checked the weather. KC I feel like it was still the right side had Mahomes not been hurt. The Ugly: Giants with one of the worst running offenses against the #1 running offense. We gotta notice this!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">On to the conference games. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 13pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">San Francisco +2.5</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If you wait, we may get it at +3, although the +125 straight up seems like a possibility.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s tough betting a “rookie” QB against a team that looked unstoppable last week (recency bias). The #1 running offense with a QB that can scramble. AJ is a huge deep threat that could be unstoppable. Of course, a #1 sack defense that can disrupt this rookie. But here’s why I ended up on the 49ers:</span></p><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Buying the narrative that the defense stops the run and bc Purdy throws mostly short, they won’t get to him as much.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">All the models are crazily pointing at SF winning by an average of 7!</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I prefer backing a team that has covered 9 of the last 10 vs a team that has a 9-9 ATS record.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Home favorites during the playoffs haven’t done well during the playoffs in the past covering 37% since 2000.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">SF hasn’t lost since McCaffrey arrived. They have more offensive weapons. Offense wins championships.</span></p></li></ul><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">The AFC game pick can be found on my Rofkin channel: <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/12150/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Conference-Championships">https://rokfin.com/article/12150/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Conference-Championships</a>
</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/12150/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Conference-Championships" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1008" data-original-width="1800" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC5jTAZ6pMgVufogxZhKqP9RTPsxtta-6Ny3GyQUpZDkg9ArwXfXDWLv6y7K_6QBGVRCMq_g6soFy97DgYuuMu6ecWt56-DlJpvMnTsgO8eVCF-CpFkDYS17h8foOAsn3H2qfBqo4OM4e-lUqjv4RYcn3Bce2PklPT8eTJrwyWVEgE9mteIln7bv6kUw/s320/nflpickles_2022wk21_conference_thumbnail.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-41894106059126100632023-01-25T23:38:00.002-06:002023-01-25T23:38:29.361-06:00NFC Conference Championship - Early Look<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/nflpickles" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1008" data-original-width="1800" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4G7Y3xId1RM4SSQOw8QD06u9T1DuexoeadoJxSejus_O6YWfzDEemgosrUpjdiArIJpPQpy894pSdhGeDXsH9EWblPpHUTkv8Y2HQjJakz4mMEZ-1Y0V9HHEXlkV0fwElNylcfF6jNxf7oVH3Pb_nYVzigGclaZW_9mR_GTbsa_g4Gs4m2buHmbW4iw/s320/nflpickles_2022wk21_nfcCONF_thumbnail.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">SF @ PHI -2.5</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-e28519e1-7fff-3f53-359c-fee644435b07"><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Injuries</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: No significant injuries.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Money</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: PHI getting most of the money. Reports vary from 60% to 90% of the money. Plus the line moved from 2.5 for a reason.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">QB Rating</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge Hurts. Purdy only has 7 games, has about the same TD/INT rate, same QBR rating, but significantly less rushing yards. Hurts will need to rely on the passing game here more than last game. SF run defense is good. Rookie QB keeps winning but will this be the game he breaks or is he a true stud?</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offensive Line</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge SF. Overall rank 6th vs 4th. Protecting the QB: adjusted sack rate (asr) for PHI vs SF was 7.7% and 6.3%. SF is slightly better at protecting the QB allowing 31 sacks ranked 10th vs 44 for PHI ranked 20th. </span></p></li></ul><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 36pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">PHI better opening for short and 2nd field runs ranking about 7th in the league vs SF’s 26th. Open field yards is a different story. SF 4th in the league with its deadly catch and run offense while PHI ranks 19th.</span></p><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Defensive Line</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge PHI. PHI’s defensive line's main strength by far is its pass rush. As I said last week, PHI is an outlier with 11.2% asr. Their weakness is the short and middle runs but does ok (rank 10th) against open field yards. SF on the other hand, has an average short run d-line, but ranked 1st at 2nd level and open field yards. Their 7.0% asr is average for the league. </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Two scenarios: PHI d-line breaks Purdy with so much rush leading to mistakes. PHI scores enough to cover OR SF d-line stops the run, forcing incomplete passes and the game is low scoring, at the same time Purdy and his short passes hit the target.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offense</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Even. Both are top 5 offenses with a slight edge in pass DVOA to SF, but PHI ranks 1st running the ball and SF 13th. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Defense</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge SF. Here’s the matchups for these two top defenses. PHI’s below average run defense is against SF’s #13 running offense. Unfortunately, SF’s top 3 pass offense is facing the #1 passing defense (up 4% points from 2nd place) in the league. PHI’s top rush offense is facing the #1 rush defense (also up 4% points from 2nd place). Last week (red flag) they played one of the worst run offenses in the league (recency bias). PHI’s passing also faces a steep battle in SF’s #5 passing D (half the points of PHI). It’s also worth noting that the below average run D for PHI is facing a team that doesn’t throw long passes.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ATS</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: PHI is 9-9 ATS not covering their previous 5, until last week. SF is at 13-6 ATS and 9-1 in their last 10.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trends</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: During playoffs since 2000, home team favorites by 2.5 or 3, have gone 12-21 (36%) ATS. Home teams favorites by more than 7 but less than 10 covered 8-9 this season and 50% so no trend during regular season. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Matchups</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: The last time these two teams played each other was week 2 of last year. Eagles at home favorite by 3 under Jalen Hurts lost 11-17.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conclusion</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To bet on the Eagles, you believe their pass rush is so good that it will disrupt the rookie. SF will try running the ball and it won’t work. When needed to pass, SF’s o-line can’t hold them up. The offense is good enough against this SF defense to score more given the mistakes. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">If you’re betting SF, you’re buying into a great offensive line that could tame the Eagles rush. Purdy continues strong, no mistakes, short passes, and moves the chains. The SF defense contains the run and forces Hurts to pass. Run game doesn’t work and the Eagles are toast.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-73997394089808595972023-01-20T00:23:00.000-06:002023-01-20T00:23:04.631-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Divisional Round<p style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 19.6px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Divisional playoffs have arrived and we’re down to 8 teams. Each of the games' geeky stat comparison can be found here for the <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11973/NFC-Divisional-Games--Early-Look" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s;" target="_blank"><ins style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto;">NFC</ins></a> and the <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11974/AFC-Divisional-Games--Early-Look" rel="noopener noreferrer" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline: none; text-decoration-line: none; touch-action: manipulation; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s;" target="_blank"><ins style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-skip-ink: auto;">AFC</ins></a> Divisional Games.</span></p><p style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 19.6px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">First let me review last week. Smart to stay away from both divisional AFC games that stayed close, even with backup QBs. SF was money but we were sweating in the first half. The Giants was also easy money as their reinforced defense played well and kept the game within reach. Tampa was bad in hindsight. They didn’t pressure the QB, their ATS this year has been horrible, and their one-dimensional passing game didn’t last against Dallas’ tough D.</span></p><p style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 19.6px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">On to the divisional games. </span></p><p style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 19.6px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 600;">Kansas City -8.5</span></p><p style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 19.6px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: white;">This boiled down to as a bet for one last blowout in the playoffs. Although many think the Jags have been playing well, they didn’t see the Titans game or the first half of the Chargers game. Now they face a defense that started slow but is playing much better.</span></p><ul style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 19.6px; list-style-type: circle; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;"><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Recipe for a blowout, bad defense 30th ranked against the best passing offense in the league by a lot.</span></li><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Mahomes >>>Lawrence. MVP season for Mahomes.. </span></li><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">KC 3rd in adjusted sack rate can pressure the QB much better than JAX can</span></li><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">My only worry is that most of the money is on JAX. Could be a situational play like home favorite by more than a TD doesn’t cover well during playoffs, idk.</span></li><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">KC won by 10 on Week 11 despite 3 turnovers by KC and 0 for JAX</span></li><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">Going against the models here. Data crunching suggests this game stays closer. </span></li><li style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 4px;"><span style="background-color: white;">The rest of the divisional picks can be found <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11997/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Divisional-Round">here</a>.</span></li></ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11997/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Divisional-Round" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1400" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTEIdrnZgDiMBqgrg11iG13yCFMiuez6AwwkoozW9G35JuoJDc9tuaIZqsYe6rXUFe54qkCL7A4bCxsQiZoGzt1lxRdFcCfhZ-7amRp6ju-DgkSADJNrsBAMuaEMJh650Jz51CXXH6G5fwIeeDIebpnBYKMXFaAOnVbATx9ps8QhIavvilTWBpY7Yj4Q/w456-h255/nflpickles_2022wk20_divisional_thumbnail.png" width="456" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-81825498268230082752023-01-18T22:09:00.005-06:002023-01-20T00:21:52.388-06:00AFC Divisional Games - Early Look<p> <span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">JAX @ KC -8.5</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-b013a667-7fff-2d78-60c2-ebdb72296e45"><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Injuries</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: No significant injuries known atm. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Money</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: 61% of the bets and 51% of the money on KC.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">QB Rating</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Moderate edge to Mahomes. Mahomes is having an MVP season. He’s ranked #1 in almost every category. Finished with 41 TDs + 4 Rushing, 12 INT, 67% CR. Lawrence is ranked about 7th, lower in QBR, and has 25 TDs + 5 Rushing, 7 INT, 67% CR.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offensive Line</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Even. Both protect their QBs very well. Ranked 2nd and 3rd in the league with asr of 4.7%. JAX lacks short power runs but is very good on open field. KC ranked better overall because of adjusted line yards but about average on open field rank.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Defensive Line</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge KC. Again, JAX’s defensive line ranks much better overall somehow. KC has 8.9% asr vs JAX’s 5.1 ranks 3rd vs 30th in the league. This means it’ll be harder for JAX to put pressure on the QB. Against the run, JAX much better at stopping both power and open field runs.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offense</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Moderate edge KC. The #1 overall and passing offense against a JAX offense that ranks 6th on the pass and 20th on the run. Weighted wise, there’s no difference for JAX but an improvement is seen. Also, KC’s weighted DVOA is about 20 percentage points better than JAX’s and about 4 percentage points better than SF’s.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Defense</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge KC. KC’s is an average defense that is playing better as of late. They rank 20th against the pass. JAX is 30th at stopping the pass which is about 13 percentage points worse than KC. Overall, KC ranks 14th and JAC 26th.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ATS</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: KC finished the regular season 7-10 ATS (3-5 in last 8) while JAX is at 9-9 ATS, 5-1 in last 6. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trends</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: During playoffs since 2000, home team favorites between 7 and 10 have gone 15-25 (37%) ATS. Home teams favorites by more than 7 but less than 10 covered 8-9 this season and 50% so no trend during regular season. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Matchups</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Chiefs won by 10 in Week 11 where Mahomes threw 331 yds, 4 TDs, 1INT. The Chiefs fumbled twice. 3 turnovers vs 0 and somehow managed to cover a 9.5 point spread.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conclusion: You like Jacksonville because KC doesn’t cover big spreads. The team has an offense that can score lots of points and keep up with KC. The sharps money and ATS trends are in your favor. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">You like KC because Mahomes is having an MVP year. The #1 offense against the 30th pass defense stands no chance. KC defense playing better as of late, stops them more times, KC doesn’t even punt and KC covers just as it did in Week 11.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">For the CIN @ BUF Early look, click below.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11974/AFC-Divisional-Games--Early-Look" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1008" data-original-width="1800" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUsI3vzV6iFd_tdj3_pcxRoTsbSTqvx4Bmsyra4rHDvp-djCuqXc9ESZuuue0I73n7AraOLR5VyMe7-v-K50fRvEW8A9nE-Niwoqfw0sS2-sXNz_CULFcS9fwxpb9pXBUMSzTkGBI9nBt2cAsqP8zbyagJLSJbReW4kKb3m2LHgM-QG7Xk4gyUKGhNPQ/w471-h264/nflpickles_2022wk19_afcDIV_thumbnail.png" width="471" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-27003238723269330592023-01-18T22:06:00.004-06:002023-01-20T00:21:59.082-06:00NFC Divisional Games - Early Look<p> <span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">NYG @ PHI -7.5</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-ee7793f0-7fff-6bd5-14ec-0f14740ec0c2"><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Injuries</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: PHI rested one week which should benefit Hurts to fully recover and use his ground game this week. NYG has Jackson and McKinney healthy who weren’t there in their first matchup in Week 15.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Money</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: NYG getting 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">QB Rating</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Moderate edge Hurts. Hurts dominates the stats on both run and passing against Jones. 13 rushing TDs vs 7, 760 yars vs 705. On the air 3500 vs 2900 yards, 22 TDs vs 15, and 6 vs 5 INTs.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offensive Line</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge PHI. Overall rank 6th vs 24th. Passing: adjusted sack rate (asr) for PHI vs NYG was 7.7% and 8.4% 17th and 24th ranked in the league respectively. PHI defends their QB slightly better but both are below average. Opening for the run, both were very good. NYG is better at short runs and power but PHI ranks better in 2nd level and open field. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Defensive Line</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge PHI. Overall they are neither good mostly because of their protecting the run. PHI ranked last in power runs while NYG ranks 26th. Open field wise, PHI is top 10 and NYG still bottom 5. Against the pass, PHI is an outlier with 11.2% asr and 70 sacks, first in the league. NYG have 41 sacks and 6.7% asr rank 22nd (no sacks last week).</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Offense</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge PHI. Both are top 10 offenses with similar pass DVOA but PHI ranks 1st running the ball and the Giants 7th. Weighted DVOA, given Hurts didn’t play two games, puts these two offenses much closer together.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Defense</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Slight edge PHI. Overall, PHI is better ranked. PHI is very good against the pass (partly bc asr). They do rank 21st against the run. The Giants are bottom 5 DVOA with the worst DVOA against the run. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ATS</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: PHI finished the regular season 8-9 ATS not covering their last 5. NYG finished at 14-4 ATS having covered their last 5 but note that their last non-cover was against the Eagles in Week 15.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Trends</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: During playoffs since 2000, home team favorites between 7 and 10 have gone 15-25 (37%) ATS. Home teams favorites by more than 7 but less than 10 covered 8-9 this season and 50% so no trend during regular season. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; list-style-type: disc; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Matchups</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: PHI beat NYG by 16 and ran for over 250 yards in Week 15 covering a 7 point spread. Then in Week 18 with NYG benched starters and PHI playing conservatively PHI won by 6 not covering a 17 point spread.</span></p></li></ul><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 700; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Conclusion</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">: To bet on the Giants, you need to believe that their defense is much better than the numbers reflect with all their players healthy. The offenses ranked similarly but the Giants will be able to do damage on the ground and run the clock. Sharps, trends and ATS are also in your favor.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To be on the Eagles, you know Hurts can hurt you badly on both the ground and in the air. AJ Brown will be a lethal threat that could open up the game making the Giants pass more. You also like the outlier in sacks and know that Daniel Jones will have a lot less time to get rid of the ball.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The Dallas vs SF analysis can be found <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11973/NFL-Divisional-Games--Early-Look">here</a>.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11973/NFL-Divisional-Games--Early-Look" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1008" data-original-width="1800" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNxztru72XkmOtjLtFAShhFDSxLMJNmLjP2AOqu7OGSjt1kqTNRd5YPEhaUtSnjhmJYOZ4H-uG5zmOlOnguBi76-AW5ZM7IVXn3WGW1Qnyil4O5g4_lKxb0bWAFg7VRKghy8AyrI6xdK6sgsr6xbUK2h91ncE4EFfwROqSEzjEEEH-0jSUJohSId__DQ/w422-h236/nflpickles_2022wk19_nfcDIV_thumbnail.png" width="422" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-83744400445478584832023-01-12T00:24:00.003-06:002023-01-12T00:24:31.733-06:00NFC Wildcard Games Analytic Comparison<p> I wrote this format for all the wildcard games. You can find them <a href="http://rokfin.com/nflpickles">on my channel.</a> Here's what I wrote about the first wildcard game:</p><div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 18pt; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">SEA @ SF -10</span></div><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-317d6089-7fff-32df-2ea5-f5fe9aa4c187"></span></p><ul style="margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 0; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Injuries</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Deebo back. No significant injuries known atm.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Money</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: 64% of the bets and 70% of the money on SF.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">QB Rating</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Even. Purdy has a better TD to INT ratio including the 2 TDs 0 INT against SEA in Week 15 and hence a slightly better QBR. Both QBs are new to the playoffs but Purdy is the rookie.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Offensive Line</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Big edge SF. The offensive lines ranked 4th vs 30th in the league. SEA has allowed 15 more sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 8.9% vs 6.3% for SF. SEA slightly better at open field yards (ofy), but not far from SF which is probably not better when only including games McCaffrey has played.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Defensive Line</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Moderate edge SF. Although both defensive lines have similar sacks and adjusted sack rates, SF does a much better job against the run. SEA ranks 24th in open field yards which measures effectiveness of stopping long runs. A good recipe for McCaffrey. SF ranks 1st in ofy.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Offense</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Slight edge SF. SEA is trending the wrong way on offense scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. SF has scored more than 30 in 5 of their last 6. 3rd vs 8th rank on pass, but SEA is 24th in running and SF top 10 since McCaffrey trade.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Defense</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Big edge SF. The #1 defense against the 21st. SEA ranks 25th at stopping the run and just average at stopping the pass while SF ranks 2nd and 5th respectively.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">ATS</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: SF finished the regular season 11-6 ATS and 7-1 in their last 8. SEA finished at 7-10 ATS but 1-7 in their last 8. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Trends</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: Home teams by more than 10 finished the season 10-13 ATS but has hit 46-31 (60%) since 2019. Since 2000, during the playoffs, home teams favorite by 10 or more are 14-3 (82%) ATS. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">Matchups</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap; white-space: pre;">: SF beat SEA twice this season covering both games as favorites by 8.5 and 3 in Weeks 2 and 15 respectively.</span></p></li></ul><p><br /></p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-40598061614533403582023-01-11T01:27:00.005-06:002023-01-12T00:23:31.323-06:00AFC Wildcard Games Analytic Comparison<p>I wrote this format for all the wildcard games. You can find them <a href="http://rokfin.com/nflpickles">on my channel.</a> Here's what I wrote about the first wildcard game?</p><div style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 6pt; margin-top: 18pt; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><b>SEA @ SF -10</b></span></div><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-9d70c758-7fff-033c-83a4-27a854bf71f6"></span></p><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Injuries</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: No significant injuries known atm.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Money</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: 64% of the bets and 70% of the money on SF.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">QB Rating</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: Even. Purdy has a better TD to INT ratio including the 2 TDs 0 INT against SEA in Week 15 and hence a slightly better QBR. Both QBs are new to the playoffs but Purdy is the rookie.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Offensive Line</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: Big edge SF. The offensive lines ranked 4th vs 30th in the league. SEA has allowed 15 more sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 8.9% vs 6.3% for SF. SEA slightly better at open field yards (ofy), but not far from SF which is probably not better when only including games McCaffrey has played.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Defensive Line</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: Moderate edge SF. Although both defensive lines have similar sacks and adjusted sack rates, SF does a much better job against the run. SEA ranks 24th in open field yards which measures effectiveness of stopping long runs. A good recipe for McCaffrey. SF ranks 1st in ofy.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Offense</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: Slight edge SF. SEA is trending the wrong way on offense scoring less than 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. SF has scored more than 30 in 5 of their last 6. 3rd vs 8th rank on pass, but SEA is 24th in running and SF top 10 since McCaffrey trade.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Defense</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: Big edge SF. The #1 defense against the 21st. SEA ranks 25th at stopping the run and just average at stopping the pass while SF ranks 2nd and 5th respectively.</span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">ATS</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: SF finished the regular season 11-6 ATS and 7-1 in their last 8. SEA finished at 7-10 ATS but 1-7 in their last 8. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Trends</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: Home teams by more than 10 finished the season 10-13 ATS but has hit 46-31 (60%) since 2019. Since 2000, during the playoffs, home teams favorite by 10 or more are 14-3 (82%) ATS. </span></p></li><li aria-level="1" dir="ltr" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">Matchups</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;">: SF beat SEA twice this season covering both games as favorites by 8.5 and 3 in Weeks 2 and 15 respectively.</span></p></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
See the two other games <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11843/AFC-Wild-Card-Games--Early-Look">here</a>. Picks coming after.</span></span></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-25601650429603660702022-12-22T01:04:00.006-06:002022-12-22T01:04:54.926-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 16<p><span style="background-color: white; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">After starting with a solid pick on Thursday night betting the 49ers, Sunday turned out to be a shit show. The Vikings -3.5 or -4 point spread didn't cover, but it almost did after a 33 point deficit. I thought the game was going to be more like the second half, saw some of it, and still think it was the right play. Baltimore on the other hand reminded me how careful one must be on a divisional game with a back up QB. Talking about back up QBs, we got a lot this week.</span></p><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="fhvva" data-offset-key="cqv7b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="cqv7b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="cqv7b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Most games will be played in freezing temperatures and with winds over 15mph. No snow on the forecast for any that I know of. Let's get started with Thursday Night:</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="cqv7b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="cqv7b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="fhvva" data-offset-key="3m7u4-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3m7u4-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="3m7u4-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">NY JETS -1.5</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="fhvva" data-offset-key="hbrf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="hbrf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="hbrf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Yesterday this spread was at 0, the split is favoring the Jags, therefore this qualifies as a reverse line movement. I don't like betting on Zach Wilson, who I guess is the official back up QB. This might come bite me later, but I still think it covers here's why:</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="hbrf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Jags on the road are 2-22 and a really bad record for Lawrence ATS</li><li>Quennin Williams and his 11 sacks didn't play last week but is expected to play this week</li><li>Starter LT for the Jags is out</li><li>15mph winds at 20 degrees levels out the Zach Wilson situation, limits the pass game</li><li>All models with various data sets and levers pointing at the Jets to win by at least 3, at most 8, average of 6.</li></ul></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="fhvva" data-offset-key="ep7n3-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="ep7n3-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="ep7n3-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">CLEVELAND -2.5</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="fhvva" data-offset-key="fv954-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fv954-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="fv954-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">This game had one of the highest confidence. That means that when the prediction favors a small home team by over 3 points, the system is correct about 65% of the time.</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fv954-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="fv954-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="fhvva" data-offset-key="be74n-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="be74n-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="be74n-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Are we ready to get on the Watson train? Not necessarily, but he showed glimpses of his athletic ability. Browns with good to great receivers in Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku should start getting better at the pass. Better yet...</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="be74n-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Non-conference road dome dog Saints playing at below freezing temperatures</li><li>Saints gave up over 200 yds on the ground last week, at 24th DVOA vs the run playing against Hunt & Chubb (8th in DVOA)</li><li>Cleveland ranks 10 spots higher in DVOA than the Saints and at home they're favorites by 2.5? Doesn't make sense.</li></ul><div>I got 3 other solid picks this <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11580/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-16">here</a>: </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11580/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-16" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2872" data-original-width="5120" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9w35mB9onSXh1HZB3gYshLFoNRro1oAg3UD0mG08ztpaW5jB_9TiPKeNi-hFfeofQkOw-sjcujkNecDGekk-SJ95AM_tjkWp5dYNQcdZ4MEF_4HjND1pSiwKbrYpHPK9iFvqsduwVArpfMXi-4EDv8HbQ5Tk5INxcE2oprkKZ1x93EFVHjom8xCoEAw/w435-h245/nflpickles_2022wk16_thumbnail.png" width="435" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></div></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-32975490485759710482022-12-15T02:27:00.003-06:002022-12-15T02:27:26.182-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 15<p><span style="background-color: white; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">As you've been noticing, there is a pattern to the thumbnail of every one of my articles. This week is no different. Put a comment below describing the trend. </span></p><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="eo5qj-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="eo5qj-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="eo5qj-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Before we get to the 3-game parlay we're gonna hit this week, let's talk a bit about last week. Nailed the Jets +9.5, 49ers by a mile, and the Bengals. Two of those teams are getting in shape for a Super Bowl run. The other was simply too many points on a divisional game. Seattle disappointed, Geno regressing, and their defense is headed the wrong direction.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="f0l81-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="f0l81-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="f0l81-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br data-text="true" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="8h239-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8h239-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="8h239-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">This week, I don't want any part of the Bengals/Bucs game because although the Bucs look horrible, they still have a chance at the playoffs. Models say Tennessee but the Chargers have way too many good players on the field now. Carolina is unpredictable and idk if it's Trubisky for the Steelers. Arizona/Denver has two back up QBs. Models have the Eagles, but Fields is unpredictable and could crank up the score. Giants should cover but I like Heineke's spirit and energy. He covers and they've won 7 of the last 8. Ok, well enough of the games I don't like.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="694gf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="694gf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="694gf-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br data-text="true" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="9vnak-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9vnak-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="9vnak-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Minnesota -4</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="28qlk-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="28qlk-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="28qlk-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">We've been on the other side just waiting for the Vikings to be exposed. We've talked about their DVOA ranking being near 20th but they're 10-3. The Lions last week uncovered it for everyone. But now they face Matt Ryan and the Colts and I love fading Matt Ryan.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="fj0ju-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="fj0ju-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span data-offset-key="fj0ju-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Colts are a non-conference dog with a 4-8 record that has no business showing up for this game.</span></li><li>The Colts offense is ranked dead last and 12 percentage points from the 30th ranked in DVOA. We prefer the side with the better offense.</li><li>The Vikings clinch the division with a win. Motivated!</li><li>The Vikings have LT Christian Darrisaw back, their center, and potentially a safety. </li></ul><div>Two more solid picks, exclusively on <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11470/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-15">my Rokfin channel</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11470/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-15" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1348" data-original-width="2400" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHzorKpTNOU1zNm9EIS1snvg52Nu7cvmsjKDwpibsdmta5G8HCeaRyuuzhea1MQJ5m3l-FShnerHWrqD7Yw1aUlxTdS775RoOmzjEalUewksRKAFaYYOp4T5BuzDBFkQcuuyeNy6uP36m8b-zed4DVJefIfF6ByNFI5eF5kxrtvLxX4BCgJuncp7GJzQ/w396-h223/nflpickles_2022wk15_thumbnail.png" width="396" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="dk979-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><span data-offset-key="dk979-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="dcrua" data-offset-key="7v7m9-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-17514739753630794222022-12-08T11:31:00.002-06:002022-12-08T11:31:10.665-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 14<p><span style="background-color: white; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Admittedly, last week was horrible. Even the past few weeks have been disappointing. After a 3-0 ATS week, we went 2-2, 3-2, and 1-2 last week. We stay focus, research player injuries, adjust to playoff contention, and provide you the goods for you to make wise decisions.</span></p><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="ff71t-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="ff71t-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="ff71t-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">SEATTLE -3.5</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="9hb2b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9hb2b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="9hb2b-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Dang, only a half point better at home for Seattle against Sam Darnold. This spread is low because yes the Seahawks have disappointed by having lost ATS the last 3 after covering 4 in a row. The Panthers on the other hand have covered the last 3 weeks. This is the high-level bias bringing this spread to what it is vs 6 to 7 points.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="cark6-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="cark6-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="cark6-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">- Seattle is in second place and this is the easiest game for their schedule. A must win to stay in the playoff race. They want it more.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="9mujm-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9mujm-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="9mujm-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">- With good confidence, the models predict the Seahawks to cover this and win by at least a TD.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="6b0hs-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="6b0hs-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="6b0hs-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">- Sam Darnold on the road is 7-18 SU and ATS. </span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="3ai6v-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="3ai6v-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="3ai6v-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">- The only worry is Carolina's running game against a bottom half rush D.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="e6tc2-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="e6tc2-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="e6tc2-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">- Bottom line: similarly ranked Ds, Seahawks with a huge passing game that can score quick.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="9dhjv-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="9dhjv-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="9dhjv-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br data-text="true" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="bi9ep-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="bi9ep-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="bi9ep-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">SAN FRANCISCO -3.5</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming from a miracle win against a lousy Colts team. You were able to see the difference in the offensive line without Wirth. They have lost 2 pro-bowlers on the o-line and Brady is yelling at the subs bc he's not getting the protection. Now they face the toughest defense in the league which is playing better every day. That's the angle. I know Jimmy is out and we're dealing with a back up QB but his teammates have praised Purdy of his physical talents. The Bucs rush D is nowhere where it used to be. They are still ranked 10th but similar to Baltimore, it's going the wrong direction. Deebo and McCaffrey to have big games. San Francisco wins by 10.</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Two more solid picks found <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11351/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-14">here</a>.
</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11351/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-14" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1460" data-original-width="2600" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSK162-H1CkjqiuNxZeNZY_4Oo9fY_t8CPrzVfAv5jvelifEk4jnc58767C_ouIyKAdGlCFU78SaBV-PsVrNA-4IoHDrcTjG3P9tITClw00oAyqqUMWvIHuue6xbeaWTVQMSHbMxiFYt3i37xpSPAsp3b5fxDmuoA0_Kfc5STkw5rnca1Lu1pj0EotEQ/w459-h258/nflpickles_2022wk14_thumbnail_v2.jpg" width="459" /></a></div><br /><span data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div><span data-offset-key="8o3gb-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="5o5ml" data-offset-key="2to1g-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-80102917841489763842022-12-01T12:32:00.003-06:002022-12-01T12:32:44.471-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 13<div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="bgig3" data-offset-key="1s460-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="1s460-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="1s460-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Jets were money, Giants did a miracle cover, and Detroit we knew that was too many points. Seattle disappointed and Baltimore's offense is not as good as their rankings seem to place them. This week we go back and continue winning with some of these teams which seems like they're still a bit underrated.</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="bgig3" data-offset-key="81ohk-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="81ohk-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="81ohk-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br data-text="true" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;" /></span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="bgig3" data-offset-key="d409t-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="d409t-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="d409t-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Seattle -7</span></div></div><div class="" data-block="true" data-editor="bgig3" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; background-color: white; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.85); font-family: ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, "Helvetica Neue", Arial, "Noto Sans", sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Noto Color Emoji"; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">The Rams team is trash. Now Aaron Donald is gonna miss his first game since 2017! No Cooper Kupp + Stafford still in play. Are they just quitting for good draft picks? I think so. Although Seattle lost last week, their offense is still top 5 in the league. The models had Seattle to win by a bit more than a TD, but the Rams are trash and this is gonna be a blowout. Why is the spread going down? This opened close to 10, then at 7.5 yesterday and this morning it is at 7, what a deal!</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;">Two other great opportunities published on my <a href="http://rokfin.com/nflpickles">Rokfin channel</a>.</span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11235/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-13" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1484" data-original-width="2562" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjL1rH_LBzlEeTj26wJAE9eChGykiNIdd-tUmkgo7ZSgpzriXzjaJWeB6n-84j_SAvf9kz2Be1U_BYE_AR9by9umT3kEvbRSxxgvh4UI8DLyiCtp3W62vRl1h-219ThDu7F1KiKb9mWYBKi3-50_H2qQhBFeFfApMz1Wu8d0mAUhdFA96urv0DRXN3oFA/s320/nflpickles_2022wk13_thumbnail.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div><div class="public-DraftStyleDefault-block public-DraftStyleDefault-ltr" data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><span data-offset-key="rmr0-0-0" style="--tw-border-opacity: 1; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,0.5); --tw-ring-inset: var(--tw-empty, ); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 transparent; --tw-shadow: 0 0 transparent; border-color: rgba(229,231,235,var(--tw-border-opacity)); border-image: initial; border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></span></div></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-90938027305665828902022-11-23T02:20:00.002-06:002022-11-23T02:20:24.660-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12<div>Great win on Thursday Night Football last week and a great pick on the Chargers. The Eagles disappointed in a game they should've covered. The Giants pick was trash in hindsight. This week's analysis is specifically hard because of all the injuries. Games with Arizona and Rams where a backup QB is starting are a non-starter for our methodology. Other games do pop out once the spreads were estimated. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Thanksgiving Picks</b></div><div>I'll summarize my findings of all games with one pick. If you want to see the actual model output, see the image below. Here's the pick:</div><div><br /></div><div>Tease: New York Giants +15.5, Buffalo -3.5, New England +8.5. A brief overview of each game:</div><div><br /></div><div>Detroit is very unpredictable as they've been scoring lots of point and have won the last 3. Sell high. They beat crappy teams. The Bills on the other hand are still a top 3 team on offense and defense. They covered last week, barely, with 6 field goals. Against Detroit which has a banged up defense, those FG turn to TDs on primetime. But watch out for that trash TD so we tease.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Giants disappointed last week and could well be on their way to the bottom, but 9.5 point underdog on a divisional game? Dallas coming off a blowout, sell high. The problem is that there could be a scenario where the Giants can't score and the Cowboys win by a lot. Divisional games with home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games. Will they lose by more than two TDs? We think not.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>New England +2.5</b></div><div>LIVE DOG!!! This game might as well be an official lock. The number one defense in the league, yep that's right, Bill Bellichick has manufactured the best defense in the NFL. They playbook against Cousins was laid out last week and the Patriots will eat. In fact, they should win outright, small dog. All models pointing at the Patriots winning. The Vikings DVOA sinks to bottom half of the league on both offense and defense. Only worry is the Pats scoring, this cannot turn into a shoot out. Defense stops the pass and creates a few turnovers, Pats cover.</div><div><br /></div><div>Get all other picks on my Rokfin channel. <a href="https://Rokfin.com/NFLpickles">Rokfin.com/NFLpickles</a></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11149/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-12" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="1600" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfMWR0vCIqEgABCqfAZK4BFiL4X5uzR96GnAHXmW5yh-x1hvToYAeH0OTHtxSEeQVARIHOKV3ObqjoFrBApSY9cbU0CxizDK2OgUxotfwSmRUaYXwKYfE02mOiQ_VCxEqIplokEYKn84W231oAoMwOtBITedgM3DP485CYyYLp9GaieuA8KQ6MLee_5g/s320/nflpickles_2022wk12_thumbnail.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-82366466588453178912022-11-17T11:15:00.003-06:002022-11-17T11:15:32.043-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11<p>The easiest pick of the week has gotta be the Eagles. I'll explain below why. Other solid opportunities and volatile stay aways are published on <a href="http://rokfin.com/nflpickles">my Rokfin channel</a>.</p><p><b>Philadelphia -6.5</b></p><p>This spread was 6.5 the past two days, but unfortunately today is at 7 (-105). We still pick it at 7 for the risk of a push. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a blowout. There is some talk about this one loss team dismantling, crumbling, etc. The Commanders played well and Heineke was pumped like his job depended on it. Now these Eagles come back with vengeance. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>This is another all the predictions are pointing north of 7, closer to 10. </li><li>Are we catching a bit of recency bias from Indy's last week's win against the Raiders? Big difference between Raiders and Eagles.</li><li>Crazy line movement after Eagles' loss. Over reaction.</li><li>Colts second game on the road now facing a non-conference opponent who happens to be the best in that conference.</li><li>Colts don't have a QB. Fade Matt Ryan. The team wins, the defense covers. </li><li>Against: JT is back hitting over 20 mph rushing.</li></ul><div>3 other games analyzed with the same level of statistical rigorousness <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11067/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-11">here</a>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/11067/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-11" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1484" data-original-width="2562" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7w-L0dY3Rj0TLhJhrZdnJNFyc8xA-TDdTCzjXN51G9DXvx6woAKpHow4EnrZa68mMAGcwKZ85JD9qs6iUkyVRNTvCcOfqumIHv6SZ_YuEGIWEYr4vWL0Y4lUg7LZ4e18HkotWp3tq1VhA1FaUYXly3NqlWL8VnSxw1H03XaSEnUvPDA2ZQz8C_aKOqg/s320/nflpickles_2022wk11_thumbnail.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><p></p><p> </p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580227844881123874.post-76962276011900610502022-11-10T01:20:00.005-06:002022-11-10T01:20:42.282-06:00NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 10<p>Another great and perfect week last week. I gave you Baltimore here free on MNF. This week's free pick is (make sure to see all my picks on <a href="https://rokfin.com/nflpickles">Rokfin</a>).</p><p><b>Kansas City -9.5</b></p><p>Is this a trap? Am I getting sucked in because it is not 10? Maybe, but it's time for this KC team to have another blowout. Last week we were on Tennessee because they got 12 points and now Jacksonville gets 9.5? </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Surprisingly, the split is not favoring KC by much. Not a chalk play.</li><li>Lawrence is 3-11 ATS on the road, 9-19 lifetime ATS.</li><li>Jaguars ranked 27th against the pass. KC 20th against the run, not great and hopefully enough to stop Etienne</li><li>Let down spot? Back cover? If it was above 10 I would agree, but the backdoor could simply be to end at -10</li><li>Models off the chart on this game. All consistently near -17 points. </li></ul><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://rokfin.com/article/10976/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-10" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1444" data-original-width="2562" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivZpVftV4kdl59wc5MMeunR25Sdoras0iCnqn6P51YfvitGSWpWdKZT-U83GWX1CsS0ucoosVbIbxtQ8n7moZLpOeTeYlQ2ph1IRBWwcFt7FwcvtDXLsEqUD7VtSKuKwMdTRRTBurMTnhEE3rZ8xigcSLni02y5bl9CnjCYKx-UPBrN5OKo3_bPnUMHg/s320/nflpickles_2022wk10_thumbnail.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div>Go to <a href="https://rokfin.com/article/10976/NFL-Point-Spread-Picks--Week-10">Rokfin.com</a> to get all my picks.</div><p></p>Jaimehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16907581331686653661noreply@blogger.com0