Statistics Beats the NFL Point Spread

Hey Jaime, Just wanted to say hi and that i'm get...

2010-07-16T15:06:37.152-05:00

Hey Jaime,

Just wanted to say hi and that i'm getting excited for this year's season. I hope you will still have time to update the site this year.

DDW.

Hello all Just thought you guys might like this s...

2010-03-04T11:30:09.701-06:00

Hello all

Just thought you guys might like this sports chat forum also:

http://www.wetalksports.com

If you like to talk about what games you're betting and why you like them to get second opinions. Some very good info and pretty cool people!

They also have money contests that are free to join.

Just wanted to share.. All the best

I'm working on a creating a post to recap of the s...

2010-02-09T14:38:13.223-06:00

I'm working on a creating a post to recap of the season: prediction summaries, lessons learned, and possible modifications for next year. I'll ask for your feedback as well.

Many thanks for following and all the great comments. You've made this the best year NFLpickles has had.

Best,

Jaime

Great season Jaime. Keep up the great work. I re...

2010-02-08T16:28:51.030-06:00

Great season Jaime. Keep up the great work. I really like what you're doing here. My only objection was to the Superbowl pick.

Here's where I think you went wrong:

"Peyton Manning is a proven champion and I would never bet against one. Who would ever bet against Michael Jordan? Although these two athletes are incomparable, they are both champions and when given their moment, they will triumph."

While yes, Manning has won a championship (only one), he's also shown (more often than not) that he's a playoff choker. He has been to the playoffs 9 times. 5 of those times he failed to register a single win. His overall playoff record is 9-9 (4 wins came during the Superbowl winning run). His QB rating in the playoffs is almost a full 10 points lower than in the regular season, and his TD:INT ratio is much higher in the playoffs than the regular season.

People got caught up in the Manning hype spewed by the media over the past two weeks. Yes Manning is a great QB, maybe the best to ever play the game. But only in the regular season. His playoff statistics and track record is very mediocre for such an elite QB. So while the media and everyone hyped him up as invincible, the statistics showed something much different.

Luckily I went against the grain on this bet (and actually played two alternate spreads of NO -3.5 and NO -10.5) and had a nice little payout to end the season.

NFL offensive and defensive stats are considered a...

2010-02-08T11:07:23.447-06:00

NFL offensive and defensive stats are considered as well as historical scores. I will revise this game and others during the off-season, tweak it, back-test it, and hopefully improve it.

Thanks for following during the year.

Jaime, Can you explain why your model estimated t...

2010-02-08T10:51:01.024-06:00

Jaime,

Can you explain why your model estimated the colts by 8 points? What drives this estimate b/c the Saints were statistically better in many categories.

Great Season! Looking forward to next year.

Great game. As I told a friend of mine who was wat...

2010-02-07T21:57:30.287-06:00

Great game. As I told a friend of mine who was watching the game with me, "you can't judge the system based on one game".

I was right, Go Saints! Good thing my money was on...

2010-02-07T20:52:07.967-06:00

I was right, Go Saints! Good thing my money was on them. +$100 !!! Manning choked! Reminded me of Tony Romo lol

Thanks a lot stephen. Tony Dungy is with me :) ht...

2010-02-06T21:20:40.187-06:00

Thanks a lot stephen.

Tony Dungy is with me :) http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2009/news/story?id=4889508

thanks for a great year! looking forward to next ...

2010-02-06T18:19:29.026-06:00

thanks for a great year! looking forward to next season.

The fact that the line is moving towards the Saint...

2010-02-05T08:17:51.359-06:00

The fact that the line is moving towards the Saints is a good sign for wagering on the Colts. I read a journal article once, I'll see if I can find it again, that found that when the line moves in one direction (Saints), 54% of the time the team in the opposite direction (Colts) covers the spread. It even showed percentages by the amount of points the line moves, but I can't remember the details.

I took the Colts at -5 at a lower wager, and now reinforcing at -4. At the over/under, I have no statistical clue. Gut feeling is over (just because you got the best two offenses playing each other).

Mr.Sun Tan a.k.a Jaime, I guess I missed my shot ...

2010-02-05T02:53:28.324-06:00

Mr.Sun Tan a.k.a Jaime,
I guess I missed my shot to bet on the Saints. I thought I would wait it out closer to the Super Bowl in a effort to get an even better favored spread on the Saits!However, now more people are going Saints and dropping the line. Oh well, I will make my decision on Saturday, whether to go with you or go on my gut feeling and mass knowledge of football. Ps. I am starting my own website pretty soon and will post all the picks even if I go on vacation j/k
Lets make ammends, I like your site and appreciate you offering them for free. Thank You!!!!!
Ps. If you answer me back,lol.
By how much would you take the Colts, -4 is what I can get..I think it my be to low. Also, I know you dont do the over/under but, would you take the over by chance. Its the last game lets gamble! haha Thanks, Brandon aka Mr.Idiot lot

On a side note, what do you think of the new iPad?...

2010-02-04T15:29:51.637-06:00

On a side note, what do you think of the new iPad? http://nflpicklesipad.nisurvey.com

Grats on a great year. Hopefully next year I'll f...

2010-02-04T06:34:56.550-06:00

Grats on a great year. Hopefully next year I'll figure out a better way to follow along from this side of the world.

Also, I always love picking NHL once the NFL is over. But I always go on a huge losing streak just after the trade deadline.. so what do I know.

All the best to you and yours.

On second thought, hey if you need an off site int...

2010-02-03T11:38:03.432-06:00

On second thought, hey if you need an off site intern to crunch numbers or research for you or input data, or answer your email, i'd love to apply.

keep up the good work. ignore the idiots. thanks f...

2010-02-03T10:35:06.455-06:00

keep up the good work. ignore the idiots. thanks for the free picks.

Why would I give you money? Then you would have sk...

2010-02-02T02:20:08.031-06:00

Why would I give you money? Then you would have skipped week 16 and went to the Jersey Shore to meet "The Situation". Fist pump!

Read the post. It's really not how long, but havin...

2010-02-02T02:08:55.688-06:00

Read the post. It's really not how long, but having the equipment. If you really wanted those two picks, you should've wired me $300 to the island and I would've made them happen.

Mr.Sun Tan, Ok I agree with week 17, but how long...

2010-02-02T01:59:14.056-06:00

Mr.Sun Tan,
Ok I agree with week 17, but how long really does it take to post the picks...like 10 min? Go Saints! Ps.I except your appology,not

Mr. Brandon sorry that I've offended you. I do try...

2010-02-02T01:45:50.644-06:00

Mr. Brandon sorry that I've offended you. I do try my best to provide the best picks, for free, all season.

Week 17 is not a smart week to bet. In that case it wasn't laziness, it was a well thought break from spread picks. Last week, well yes, just like the President of the United States takes vacation to golf and hang out with his family, I did the same myself.

I do not expect anyone to trust me, just to follow my track record and judge. Good luck with your Saints pick, not.

No picks for week 17 & last week! what is up with ...

2010-02-02T01:36:41.636-06:00

No picks for week 17 & last week! what is up with that! If this guy cared he would post all the picks and not slack off! I don't trust his opinion anymore. Saints won't lose by more than the spread! whats this guy been smokin'

I had to look up what that meant. http://idioms.th...

2010-02-01T20:53:16.497-06:00

I had to look up what that meant. http://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/Pride+comes+before+a+fall

Maybe next year, go Colts!

Pride comes before a fall

2010-02-01T16:59:50.403-06:00

Pride comes before a fall

So what your saying is we all would have won some ...

2010-01-31T21:33:25.255-06:00

So what your saying is we all would have won some money if you posted the picks! Thanks alot, hope you got a nice tan from your vacation!

I ran the model, after the fact. Just because I wa...

2010-01-31T20:31:58.048-06:00

I ran the model, after the fact. Just because I wanted to see what it would spit out. Of course, not including the IND/JETS and the NO/MIN game. I don't included in a post, because after all its after the fact. I know some won't believe me, I never believe the emails from Wpicks saying "last week 5-0, buy my pick this week".

It amazes me how well the model does in the playoffs. Is it because the teams are giving their all out best? What is so different about the playoffs, that their "close to the mean". It predicted the spread correctly in both games.

Blogger doesnt allow me to diplay a table so here is what is said.

IND -8.7 59%
NO -6.3 57%

Publishing my Super Bowl pick very soon.